My Plasma Deck is cursed. Every time I try to play it, the game’s RNG dunks on me every chance it gets. I’ll be starved for either chips or mult with no way out. I can’t even win White Stake. Got Bootstrap? My arcana packs will never have Temperance. Got Photograph? I’ll never see Hanging Chad and I probably won’t even have any face cards in my standard packs. Lucky cards almost never trigger. Wheel of Fortune is a 95% “Nope!”, of course.

This isn’t a problem if I play Red Deck or Painted Deck. Chance-based cards actually work sometimes, and lucky cards have a knack for hitting +20 mult if I would die without it.

I think the game’s RNG does calculations for how much a certain effect would help your current run, and puts a thumb on the scale one way or another. The game attempts to keep each run viable but not brokenly good. I think Plasma Deck and maybe Ghost Deck result in the game thinking I’m always overpowered and due for some bad luck, permanently.

I have to be careful when considering this, but I’m trying to rule out confirmation bias. Is there any such mechanic mentioned in LocalThunk’s posts or the game’s LUA scripts? Am I just on tilt and making up superstitions?

  • SavvyWolf@pawb.socialEnglish
    3·
    2 days ago

    It’s a common thing with every game that has a significant element of random chance: Humans are just bad at understanding probabilities.

    I think a lot of game design philosophy actually suggest that you should fudge probabilities to “feel” right. Gsmes like Fire Emblem and (I think) xcom actually lie about the probabilities and skew them to the extremes because that’s just how people “feel” is correct.

    Anyway, Balatro doesn’t do any of that. The cards you are offered are entirely deterministic based on the seed, and don’t depend on what cards you buy or skip. In each ante, rewards are in a specific order which isn’t changed by anything in game.

    I think the only luck manipulation it does is, if you are playing on gold stake, it will reroll the seed until the first legendary Joker is one you don’t have a gold seal on.

  • ImplyingImplications@lemmy.ca
    8·
    3 days ago

    The code of Balatro is open source. Unzip your exe file and see that it’s a bunch of lua source files in a trenchcoat.

    The code is terribly written, so it’ll probably take a while to find what you’re looking for, but I once read through it check to see if Wheel of Fortune was actually a 1 in 4 chance. It is.

    I doubt there is anything checking which deck you’re using. Actual RNG is incredibly far from what our intuition about randomness is and it’s made worse by many popular games having hidden pity systems to prevent streaks of bad luck. Balatro has no pity system. The game doesn’t track if you missed Wheel of Fortune 6 times in a row. The next check is still 1 in 4.

    • hitstun@fedia.ioOP
      2·
      20 hours ago

      This is true. I’m sure Balatro addicts have pored over every line of LUA script in the game, and they would have spotted anything resembling a pity system. Balatro is unusual for not fudging the probabilities at all, and I just had to wrap my head around that. That one time my lucky cards triggered 7 times and didn’t give me any +mult and I died… that was just 7 honest misses in a row, which had a 21% chance of happening.

      I actually went back and tried Plasma Deck yesterday, Playing like I have a brain, I finally beat White Stake, made it to ante 12, and got the achievement for 100,000k in a single hand. I kept my options open and adapted to the upcoming boss blinds like I should, and I had a good run.

    • GissaMittJobb
      4·
      2 days ago

      It’s not strictly speaking open source, but the source code can be read if you so wish.