Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf (@rahmstorf@fediscience.org)
fediscience.org
Uhmm - not actually the Gulf Stream but the AMOC. Imprecise wording. The AMOC contributes about 15 million cubic meters per second to the Gulf Stream, the latter totals 90 million. However, the AMOC delivers the bulk of the heat transport to the north, so it is what seriously matters to climate. Full explanation what I think about the new study here: https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2023/07/what-is-happening-in-the-atlantic-ocean-to-the-amoc/ https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jul/25/gulf-stream-could-collapse-as-early-as-2025-study-suggests

They’re on mastodon (super cool!): @rahmstorf@fediscience.org. Tis is a post of theirs which has a link to an article on their blog (link here), which is fairly thorough and detailed and succinct.

I haven’t been following this or climatology, and last I checked (ages ago) it was thought this Gulf Stream thing was very unlikely. I found it striking to read Stefan’s opinion that it really isn’t like that.

  • Lee DunaEnglish
    3•10 months ago

    Pentagon knew about this, but President Bush ignored the report

    A secret report, suppressed by US defence chiefs and obtained by The Observer, warns that major European cities will be sunk beneath rising seas as Britain is plunged into a ‘Siberian’ climate by 2020. Nuclear conflict, mega-droughts, famine and widespread rioting will erupt across the world.

    The document predicts that abrupt climate change could bring the planet to the edge of anarchy as countries develop a nuclear threat to defend and secure dwindling food, water and energy supplies. The threat to global stability vastly eclipses that of terrorism, say the few experts privy to its contents.

    ‘Disruption and conflict will be endemic features of life,’ concludes the Pentagon analysis. ‘Once again, warfare would define human life.’

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2004/feb/22/usnews.theobserver

    • dave_rEnglish
      3•10 months ago

      I suggest taking a closer look.

      The secret report (https://apps.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA469325) seems pretty dire. But, it doesn’t really mention the Gulf stream current or the more precise AMOC. (Gulf appears in the secret report 4 times, only twice in relation to Gulf Stream, none in relation to collapse).

      What Rahmstorf is saying is less immediate. Read it here:

      https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2023/07/what-is-happening-in-the-atlantic-ocean-to-the-amoc/

      "Conclusion

      Timing of the critical AMOC transition is still highly uncertain, but increasingly the evidence points to the risk being far greater than 10 % during this century – even rather worrying for the next few decades. The conservative IPCC estimate, based on climate models which are too stable and don’t get the full freshwater forcing, is in my view outdated now. I side with the recent Climate Tipping Points report by the OECD, which advised:

      Yet, the current scientific evidence unequivocally supports unprecedented, urgent and ambitious climate action to tackle the risks of climate system tipping points."