Continuing the war means the economy faces stagnation, while ending it would shut off the massive defense spending that's driven growth, Alexander Mertens writes.

Summary

Regardless of Putin’s decision regarding the war in Ukraine, Russia’s economy is facing a crisis due to factors such as sanctions, a shrinking sovereign wealth fund, and a labor shortage. The war has boosted growth, but Russia cannot sustain it without significant economic consequences.

  • DragonConsort@pawb.socialEnglish
    511·
    2 months ago

    I’m not an economist or even especially well informed, but… Isn’t war kind of… You know. Expensive?

    Yeah I know it could pay off in the long term if you just swept up a country’s worth of innocents, genocided them and grabbed their land (Hi Israel), but… Fuck up the war badly enough, and there’s not going to BE a long term, just because the economy collapses. Right?

  • foggy@lemmy.worldEnglish
    223·
    2 months ago

    I have a dream where I visit St Petersburg, Finland soon.

  • neidu2@feddit.nlEnglish
    12·
    2 months ago

    They could have stopped at any time, but once their three day plan failed, putin decided to engage in a money-burning competition against a group of countries with a combined gdp roughly 25 times theirs…

    • Makeitstop@lemmy.worldEnglish
      23·
      2 months ago

      He’s not relying on Ukraine’s allies running out of money, he’s betting that they’ll lose interest and/or vote for pro-Russian stooges before he loses the ability to win the war.

    • Nalivai@lemmy.worldEnglish
      1·
      2 months ago

      For him this is the best possible outcome. He remains relevant and firmly planted on the throne until he dies. Endless but not very active trench war is his dream, even a victory, whatever that could look like, is worse for him

  • bigFab@lemmy.worldEnglish
    7·
    2 months ago

    …not if he wins the war. Like japanese in late WWII. Die hungry or die fighting.

    • Nalivai@lemmy.worldEnglish
      1·
      2 months ago

      Not only there is almost no possible scenario of him winning by any possible sane metric, there is no reality when Russia is recovering from this shit without fundamental changes. Whatever win can be, it’s impossible and wouldn’t help.

      • bigFab@lemmy.worldEnglish
        1·
        2 months ago

        I absolutely agree with you on the impossibility to win by Russia, unlike most people nowadays. Like the ones who are sure Russia will win the instant Trump gets to office. Not even close to military complex and diplomacy realities.

        About recovering economy, history proves the loser always loses big. Russia would never recover from war reparations + sanctions, unless it completely became a Nato satellite state, like Germany and Japan did after WWII. Of course we all know that will never happen with Russia.

        Just to remember the only State in history to pay full war reparations is Finland and they did no big destruction.