I think after the war in Ukraine finishes, BRICS will be evolving more and more quickly. Part of that will probably be the induction of Turkey in BRICS. If that happens, then there’s a very serious possibility that the US-Turkish relations will be coming to a head. That could escalate into a series of events (which might also involve Greece), where Turkey exits or gets expelled from NATO. Turkey being the second largest military force in NATO, its exit might create serious internal issues.
Furthermore, in the very likely scenario that Israel comes out as a loser in its current insanity, that would weaken NATO’s position even further.
In the meantime, if Russia achieves a significant victory and territorial expansion, Europe will have to find a way to co-exist with its neighbor. Western European countries will be hesitant, but eventually they’ll try to reinstate diplomatic and trade relations with Russia, particularly after experiencing a long recession and inability to sustain themselves by importing expensive fuel, steel and other things from the US. They’ll have no choice but to turn to the much cheaper Russian and Chinese (and perhaps decolonized African) solutions. That would mean further divergence of European foreign policy from US foreign policy.
Eastern Europeans are a kind of wildcard, but at least some of them will decide that the new NATO is not enough to support them in a conflict, so they’ll try to lower their belligerence towards Russia and normalize relations as well. Especially if Western Europe seems to be getting along with Russia, nations like Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, maybe Czechia and Poland as well, will be moving closer to Russia.
The US might try to influence the situation in the opposite direction, but unless they do something drastic a la Nord Stream pipeline attack, they won’t really be able to stem the tide. Their only other realistic option is to stoke a (proxy or limited) conflict between US and China, which will drag Europe alongside the US. And even then, it will just prolong the final outcome.
I think after the war in Ukraine finishes, BRICS will be evolving more and more quickly. Part of that will probably be the induction of Turkey in BRICS. If that happens, then there’s a very serious possibility that the US-Turkish relations will be coming to a head. That could escalate into a series of events (which might also involve Greece), where Turkey exits or gets expelled from NATO. Turkey being the second largest military force in NATO, its exit might create serious internal issues.
Furthermore, in the very likely scenario that Israel comes out as a loser in its current insanity, that would weaken NATO’s position even further.
In the meantime, if Russia achieves a significant victory and territorial expansion, Europe will have to find a way to co-exist with its neighbor. Western European countries will be hesitant, but eventually they’ll try to reinstate diplomatic and trade relations with Russia, particularly after experiencing a long recession and inability to sustain themselves by importing expensive fuel, steel and other things from the US. They’ll have no choice but to turn to the much cheaper Russian and Chinese (and perhaps decolonized African) solutions. That would mean further divergence of European foreign policy from US foreign policy.
Eastern Europeans are a kind of wildcard, but at least some of them will decide that the new NATO is not enough to support them in a conflict, so they’ll try to lower their belligerence towards Russia and normalize relations as well. Especially if Western Europe seems to be getting along with Russia, nations like Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, maybe Czechia and Poland as well, will be moving closer to Russia.
The US might try to influence the situation in the opposite direction, but unless they do something drastic a la Nord Stream pipeline attack, they won’t really be able to stem the tide. Their only other realistic option is to stoke a (proxy or limited) conflict between US and China, which will drag Europe alongside the US. And even then, it will just prolong the final outcome.