For those who don’t know, the WSJ (a Murdoch paper) opinion section is notoriously conservative, so this is pretty significant.
I would post a link to it directly, but none of the paywall bypass options worked for me, so there wouldn’t be much point.
I don’t think you can assume that all of the people who didn’t vote for Biden also wouldn’t vote for Harris.
And I don’t think we can assume that the lower bound to Trump’s support is just the hard-core MAGAts.
There are also the die-hard Republicans who treat their political affiliation like a sports team. They will reflexively vote R no matter what, even if they don’t approve of Trump’s behavior.
Then, paradoxically, there are also the low-information voters who actively avoid politics. In prior years, these tended to lean Democratic, but this year is a bit different. We are finding that many of these people are in much worse shape vs 4 years ago financially, and since they never paid attention to political stuff to begin with all they know is Biden was President for all of that. We know the economy is in decent shape, and we avoided a post-pandemic recession. But the benefits are extremely uneven, and there is a large base of people who are still screwed (and doubly so if they ever want to buy a house).
It doesn’t have to be the lower bound. It just has to be enough to swing the Electoral College in Harris’ favor. That really doesn’t take a lot of voters.