On the fifth day of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, one of many unanswered questions is why Russia has launched a military campaign at huge cost with maximalist objectives, and then declined to use the vast majority of its fixed wing combat aircraft.
That’s not exactly what I’m saying. The sanctions put a time limit on the invasion. This implies that we’ll soon see the Russian airforce suddenly pushed all-in, in a desperate attempt before their gold reserves are depleted. That’s all they have to trade with, now.
At that point, we’ll see what the real state of the Russian airforce is. Out of precision munitions or unable to maintain their high tech planes? Or afraid of pilots defecting.
Russia’s war doesn’t depend on its economy. Russia doesn’t buy its equipment. It is manufactured at home.
Syria has suffered from a crippling economy for a decade, yet the government army is fully standing. Its biggest issue isn’t supplies. It’s manpower.
Yes, this explains what we’ve seen. Russia couldn’t produce a single Su-27 without international trade. No country could. The lack of day-one air domination might be explained by this. They don’t dare risk a precious asset in the expectation of years of sanctions.
Also, they’re rolling out aging and poorly maintained armor, because that’s what they manufactured at home. But it’s the 21st century. Drones and shoulder-launched self-guiding munitions are cheap hard counters. I wouldn’t want to be trapped inside a tank today!
As far as Syria goes, it wasn’t facing off against another army. They struggled to stop a multitude of powers and factions fighting them and each other for years. Only the lack of a united opposition, and Russia’s support, allowed that regime to persist. Shelling civilians with poison gas might work in Syria, but the whole world is watching Ukraine.