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Is the title kind of misleading or am I missing something?
Title:
Solar to meet half of global electricity demand growth in 2024 and 2025
The electricity demand is still increasing:
Global electricity demand is forecast to grow by around 4% in 2024, up from 2.5% in 2023,
and if I got this right the projection says it will keep increasing another 4% for 2025
The increase in global electricity consumption is set to continue into 2025, with growth at around 4% again, according to the report.
So the title actually says that:
Solar to meet the 4% of the 8% of the global electricity demand growth in 2024 and 2025?
I read it as 1/2 of the 8% of growth. They later state that wind and solar combined is 3/4 of the 8% of growth.
Solar alone is expected to meet roughly half of the growth in global electricity demand in 2024 and 2025 – with solar and wind combined meeting as much as 75% of growth.
I read it as 1/2 of the 8% of growth.
Of course, great you pointed that out
The IEA seems to be wrong on China. Electricity demand has grown by 2.3% YOY in China, which is obviously much lower then the projected 6%of the IEA. China makes up about a third of global electricity production, so this has a big impact to the better.
Source:
https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/202406/t20240625_1955166.html
EDIT: Just did a bit of math. To me it looks like the lower growth in Chinese electricity generation, if all other IEA figures are correct, would lower global growth to 2.8% this year. That would mean renewables would lower global fossil fuel electricity production for the first time. Certainly good news.
I like the positive spin of this article, and I think it’s required to keep people motivated about renewables and their impact on climate change, but… another way to phrase this headline is, “Renewables not keeping up with new demand, much less yesterday’s ‘baseline’ requirement.”
It’s not as positive, believe me I know. And I am not poking at all of this amazing progress. My point is, this article tells me we aren’t actually putting a dent in the problem that got us to this point, which was - all by itself - going to keep temperatures moving higher. I feel we are moving into a feedback loop, with higher temps and modernizing countries leading to evermore increased energy consumption.
If renewables growth can’t keep up with demand growth, we need more, and more options, to give the next generation a fighting chance.
The key is to lower emissions. However electricity is only a part of the transition. For a lot of the rest, the key is to electrify the processes. Heatpumps and EVs are two clear examples However both are much more efficent the their fossil fuel alternative in fact to the point that using 100%gas power plant electricity would lower emissions for them. Obviously at that point the only thing needed is to clean the grid, which already started.
