Not sure about Twitter, but I predict a death spiral for Reddit.

At the start, most people won’t migrate from Reddit; that’s to be expected. Plenty have a “who cares, I’m here to see catpix” mindset, while others are holding into something like the gambler’s fallacy (“the community invested its time here, we shouldn’t be trashing it”). And they’ll generate some profit from ad views and shit like that, as if things were normal.

However content quality will degrade. That disengaged community is a blessing and a curse for Reddit - they might not care about Reddit’s actions, but they don’t care about contributing with it either. And the ones invested into their communities will eventually nurture communities elsewhere. Those 48% of organic search will become 45%, then 40%, then 35%… as people notice that Reddit is not useful for newer problems, only for older stuff.

The catpix become repetitive (“didn’t I see that same cat with a different name?”) and intertwined with more and more rubbish - because now the “he does it for free” meme isn’t just a way to taunt mods; as the facade of a “users, mods, admins all united for a greater Reddit” is gone; they’ll simply say “I’m not being paid for this, who cares.” Bots become a big issue - they don’t need the API to work.

Speaking on the API, Google and Microsoft “might consider” to buy API access to train their LLMs with, but decide that scrapping off the place “the old way” is cheaper anyway.

Businesses will notice that something is rotten in the kingdom of Reddit, and avoid investing on it. A few of them will fly around Reddit like vultures; never with a direct competitor (“here’s a forum platform and link aggregator”), but by extending their already established products just a tiny enough to overlap with Reddit functionality. Direct competitors need to handle the network effect issue, but those businesses don’t.

Advertisement space in Reddit becomes really cheap, as people and businesses don’t really care about the place enough to advertise there. And as a reaction, Reddit has more ad spaces, allows more intrusive ads, and becomes rather aggressive on its ad blocking instance. Users mentioning uBlock Origin or similar are shadowbanned.

The zero tech users are progressively using Reddit less and less. They might not care about a lot of things, but the place is useless for them.

You’ll see a thousand CEOs in a row in Reddit, trying to “put it back on the rails”. Spez probably left early (I hope penniless, but I don’t predict it; I think that most of those events will happen after the IPO, so the current shareholders will still get a fair bit of money, just not as much as they hoped).

Eventually internet users will correct you for writing “reddit”, because some assumer thought that you meant “read it”. Just like “digg” is now just a misspell for “dig”.

But what about the users? If they stopped using Reddit, they started using something else, right? A few of them will end here in Lemmy. There are tech issues here, but the platform is already “good enough” for a chunk of them. Others will simply disperse, because even going outside competes with Reddit.

It’s possible that in the future Lemmy stays small. Or that will grow as big as Reddit used to be. Either way, what happens with Lemmy won’t matter that much for the fate of Reddit.

I think Reddit will die a slow and painful death. I was a mid to average Redditor (I occasionally posted content and consistently engaged with posts), and I have no interest in being over there anymore for many reasons. I migrated over here and am currently living in a tent, waiting for my permanent “Boost” house to be built. I like what I see here so far and am looking to develop a different experience. I don’t need to see people getting eaten by sharks anymore. I plan on reading more books and being online significantly less. I’m seeking quality, not quantity. I’m done with sensory overload.

I doubt either will die quickly. More like a decade-long process of fading into obscurity, followed by a corporate takeover that barely even makes the news. People were wondering the same about Facebook back when everyone started realizing that place is a shit hole, but it still lingers on! Isn’t Yahoo even still around?

Held out til my reddit Boost app finally died. There were only a handful of subreddits i held around for, but nothing i couldnt live without. I’ve noticed quite the drop in reddit over the last few years. Between the daily, constant repost, and enormous bot issues, I finally decided to not only uninstall my reddit apps, but my 11yr old account. I want to go back to "“simpler” times of the internet.

Lemmy still has many issues preventing it from becoming useable by the average zero-tech knowledge user right now. The way the federation works can still use some work to become more user friendly, the mobile apps need some time to mature, and the servers are getting overloaded.

So realistically, the best case scenario is for Lemmy to hold a considerable amount of users, enough to keep some instances active. That way, the next time Reddit fucks up (and it will happen soon enough), Lemmy will be a viable alternative by then.

So yeah, this isn’t the great migration. The technology just wasn’t ready.

It was the moral thing to do. Fuck corporations. They will get worse and a small portion of the internet will use it and I dont really care to be honest. I feel more engage and in home using this decentralized networks create by the community for the community.

they will end up the same way as Xerox, IBM, AOL and potentially Kodak. dead or suffering along in a different way massively demoted in importance. this is the way especially when you decide the best way to get money is not with the graphical user interface or digital cameras but toner and celluloid film. (got to love them tonerheads)

the big thing here however is how much reputation Reddit has cashed in on to make this change, they really played their hand and will probably be feeling this for a while if it is not their downfall.