• TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world
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      6 months ago

      I’m making a called shot of a drop into the 40’s for July’s polling.

      He wont’ drop below 25%, ever. That’s his core. They may never support another candidate again.

      However, dropping to high 30’s low 40’s only puts Trump back to par with Biden. Hardly a W, but at lease Biden would be back in the running.

        • TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world
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          6 months ago

          I mean it in a “There are still people who think gamestop is going to be a billion dollar stock” manner.

          See: https://lemmy.world/c/gamestopstock

          Cult/ Cargo cult level “They will never support another candidate again” is what I mean. They’ll write him in. They’ll have wild conspiracy theories. Not need to push. It will happen it on its own.

          I would guess its around 25-30% of Republican voters. Its the conspiracy theory mind-set cutting backwards against those that seed it. There is no undoing this.

    • nfh@lemmy.world
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      6 months ago

      I suspect some people will mental gymnastics themselves into thinking this isn’t a serious crime, and stipulating an abstract ‘serious crime’ yields more extreme results than we’ll see as a result of this verdict.

      But a few percentage point swing in a few key states is enough to ensure a Biden victory, so it may be enough.

    • kromem@lemmy.world
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      6 months ago

      The end of the article after discussing the failure of the impeachment of Clinton to actually change polls despite a difference in the hypothetical poll question before it occurred:

      “It’s possible for people to say a conviction would change their minds, but when/if [a conviction] happens, it’s possible (even likely) that it won’t matter at all."