“When you play the game of thrones, you either win or you die.”

I am very sceptical of this. Lukashenko brokered a deal? He’s a Putin puppet, why would Prigozhin cut a deal with him? What would that deal look like? Does Prigozhin become head of the MoD or Putins designated successor? He’s right there outside Moscow, he has the leverage, why would he blink?

Putin called him a traitor, an enemy of the state, why would Putin back down from that point, he already looks weak, why look weaker via a U-turn? Prigozhin must know he’s a dead man if he backs down, he knows the play book, why would he trust in the deal?

Was the whole thing a psy-op to give Putin an out? Was the voice recording that is the ultimate source of all this a Russian State propaganda play? Is it a play by Wagner to buy time to consolidate his forces before he moves on Moscow? But then, he has to be the one to move fast and hard…

Whatever is going on, we don’t know. Next 5-24hrs will be key.