This is the best summary I could come up with:

The likely outcome — territorial adjustments in Moscow’s favor, security guarantees for Ukraine and Russia — could have been peaceably negotiated beforehand had leaders had a firmer grasp of the real balance of power or greater political courage.

Washington, for its part, erroneously thought that it could deter Putin by exposing his plans through the calibrated disclosure of sensitive intelligence and rallying the West to threaten “crippling” sanctions should he invade.

Similarly, arming Ukraine with more sophisticated weapons (F-16s, long-range ATACMS missiles) will not prove decisive in overcoming Russia’s well-fortified defensive positions.

Meanwhile, Putin exudes optimism — his economy has withstood Western sanctions; his military thwarted Ukraine’s counteroffensive last year; and the West appears to be in disarray.

Should Congress finally pass the $60-billion supplemental the administration has requested, as now appears likely, the flow of arms to Ukraine should be able to thwart any decisive Russian advances in the months ahead.

Indeed, each side has raised the stakes: The Kremlin claims the “special military operation” against Ukraine has morphed into an historic war against the West.

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