• DevCat@lemmy.world
    link
    fedilink
    arrow-up
    8
    arrow-down
    1
    ·
    1 year ago

    this badly breaks MAD.

    Not really. Current estimates are that Russia has about 1,500 missiles deployed and ready to go. If we assume only 10% will actually lift off, and of those, only 10% will hit their target and detonate, that leaves 15 cities to be hit. Living near a potential target?

    • fubo@lemmy.world
      link
      fedilink
      arrow-up
      3
      arrow-down
      1
      ·
      1 year ago

      Me? I’m not far downhill from a National Lab; if their nukes work, I’m toast.

    • Bloops@lemmygrad.ml
      link
      fedilink
      arrow-up
      2
      arrow-down
      2
      ·
      1 year ago

      If we assume only 10% will actually lift off, and of those, only 10% will hit their target and detonate

      What? Why would we assume this?

      • DevCat@lemmy.world
        link
        fedilink
        arrow-up
        2
        arrow-down
        1
        ·
        1 year ago

        I’m assuming absolute crap maintenance of missiles and warheads. If they kept better care of them, more targets get hit.

        • Bloops@lemmygrad.ml
          link
          fedilink
          arrow-up
          4
          arrow-down
          1
          ·
          1 year ago

          We should err on the side of pessimism, not wild optimism when it comes to this stuff. Joke’s on us if we start a nuclear war and a billion people die because we thought their maintenance was bad.