Who let Elon Musk set the prices?
yay, how many nations worth of electricity is it consuming now?
Call me when it’s at $69,420.
World Obesity Day happened and it fell again
From here, it’s just as likely to go to $420,069 as $420.69 .
Then you should obviously buy it
0.5 * 420069 = 210034.5
0.5 * 420.69 = 210.0345
At an expected value of around $210K you’d be getting triple value on your investment if your post were true
I don’t see the sense in your calculations
If it has a 50% chance to increase by 10,000% or a 50% to decrease by 90%, the average expected price is an increase of about 5,000%. It’s a finance thing, but I doubt the commenter was serious.
It’s not the expected price per se, but the expected payoff of the investment
We may never sell at 5000% because we’re looking for 10000% so we might ignore that price until it either hits our sell point on either side. Either 10000% gain or 90% loss
The value of the investment is then our expected value, but also decreased by risk-free rate for every year we expect to hold to make 10000% profit and divided by half for the probability of 50%
So if we expect to hold for 100 years on average to achieve that price, it’s not a good investment because you can just buy bonds that yield 5% to achieve that return (131.5x after 100 years)
But if we expect to hold it for ten years, it becomes attractive
That makes perfect sense, thank you for the thorough explanation!
If you make bets like that, not just once but repeatedly in a broad portfolio, you will get filthy rich.
But that’s based on the false assumption “it’s just as likely”. The price of bitcoin is not random, and to really get filthy rich you want to use a decision process that better understands market pricing patterns.
A wonderful video on that was posted a week ago: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A5w-dEgIU1M
Here is an alternative Piped link(s):
https://www.piped.video/watch?v=A5w-dEgIU1M
Piped is a privacy-respecting open-source alternative frontend to YouTube.
I’m open-source; check me out at GitHub.
It’s called expected value
50% you expect a certain payoff, so the EV of this situation is 0.5 * payoff
Thanks, nice perspective on investing you’ve made overall in this thread. 👍
Who tf is buying??
russian agencies, chinese families, people being ransommed…
I dunno why you think Chinese families are buying it. In fact, it’s banned in China.
They might have meant Chinese families in Texas.
Illegal≠not occuring
Still, I heavily doubt that they make up a significant portion of the buyers, which Num10ck implies
Im not comfortable making assumptions like that without solid numbers to back it up.
But I am, especially given the level of network control they have. I don’t think a very large portion of Bitcoin people would be smart enough to get a VPN.
Also, claiming a ton of Bitcoin miners are Chinese is the assumption, not saying that it’s heavily unlikely. See Russell’s Teapot.
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Nice
Don’t know if “nice” is appropriate.
Technology?
If news articles about Elons current tweet or TSLAs stock price is Technology, then why not this?
I never saw such posts. Who cares about tesla stock price?
Luckily it’s been a minute since they have sprung up. I am just salty because last time the flood came, I was like “This is not Technology!!!” Only to receive a dozen down votes.
Yeah this is a bit far fetched, I guess blockchain = tech?
I think this might have had merit some years ago, but bitcoin is not about the tech anymore IMO, because the tech behind it is well established now.
But since we don’t have a “financial” sub with any traction that I know of, I’m ok with it being here anyway.Yeah Bitcoin is a 100% finance thing for a good while now. It’s not like price moves up down based on efforts by the open source community behind Bitcoin, it moves by collaborative efforts of traders, speculators, market makers and above all Tether Inc and their cronies.
My interpretation of this place is for anything that involves big tech, which includes tech that is big and big tech companies, the former of which includes Bitcoin
I love seeing fern stock price posts on my gardening community.
To extend that analogy, this place would be filled with hedge mazes, royal parks and show news instead of gardening tips and local gardens. So fern prices would be in the former category anyway
