Institute for the Study of War
www.understandingwar.org
The Kremlin announced late on June 24 that Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko negotiated a deal under which Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin will travel to Belarus without facing criminal charges in Russia; some portion of Wagner Group

Some key takeaways :

The Kremlin struggled to cohere an effective rapid response to Wagner’s advances, highlighting internal security weaknesses likely due to surprise and the impact of heavy losses in Ukraine.

Putin unsurprisingly elected to back the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and its ongoing efforts to centralize control of Russian irregular forces (including Wagner) over Prigozhin.

The Lukashenko-brokered agreement will very likely eliminate Wagner Group as a Prigozhin-led independent actor in its current form, although elements of the organization may endure under existing and new capacities.

Prigozhin likely gambled that his only avenue to retain Wagner Group as an independent force was to march against the Russian MoD, likely intending to secure defections in the Russian military but overestimating his own prospects.

The optics of Belarusian President Lukashenko playing a direct role in halting a military advance on Moscow are humiliating to Putin and may have secured Lukashenko other benefits.

The Kremlin now faces a deeply unstable equilibrium. The Lukashenko-negotiated deal is a short-term fix, not a long-term solution, and Prigozhin’s rebellion exposed severe weaknesses in the Kremlin and Russian MoD.

  • KingaEnglish
    252·
    2 years ago

    What if the coup was actually successful and there will be a power transfer? Nobody half asses a coup and lives to tell the tale

      • KingaEnglish
        101·
        2 years ago

        Prigozhin isn’t stupid - I doubt he would have stopped without a good reason. They would have taken moscow if they went for it. My personal theory is that there was a palace revolution that we’re not privvy to.

        Nothing about this, with the information that we have makes sense tbh. Only reason he’d stop is if he was certain he wouldn’t have been suicided. That certainly indicates a shift of power in Kremlin but as to what actually happened we can only speculate. I think it’s telling we didn’t hear Putin have an adress yet.

      • smartwater0897English
        5·
        2 years ago

        People who are paid mercenaries with black hearts… Yeah I don’t think the world will be a worse place without them. :)

        Only in movies these people are made to be heroes.

        • SpaceCowboy@lemmy.caEnglish
          31·
          2 years ago

          Well they will be moved to Africa and so they’ll still be making the world a worse place. Just not in this particular theater.