The Great Replacement narrative, rooted in white nationalism, posits without basis that a powerful cabal of elites are deliberately replacing white Americans with immigrants. In the last several years, the narrative has evolved into versions that appeal to different audiences. An antisemitic version of it, which surfaced during recent truck convoys focused on the border crisis, accuses Jews and Jewish organizations of engineering the surge of asylum seekers.

Another version, voiced by some high-ranking GOP officials, asserts that Democrats are intentionally bringing in immigrants to dilute the strength of Republican voters. This narrative has been articulated by now-GOP House Speaker Mike Johnson, including at a House Judiciary Committee hearing prior to his elevation to party leadership.

“It’s essentially serving as a lightning rod to gather all these extreme fringe elements down to the border,” said Freddy Cruz, program manager for the Western States Center, which monitors anti-democratic movements. “It’s having an impact, as we’re seeing with neo-Nazi groups, militias, conspiracy theorists, all joining together to rally behind this issue of immigration.”

Cruz said this was a marked shift from much of the period following the Jan. 6, 2021 Capitol riot. Following the wave of arrests tied to that event, extremist groups have largely stayed away from in-person gatherings, often labeling attempts to gather rightwing activists “false flag” operations. But Cruz said the border gatherings lit up social media spaces frequented by far-right actors, and drew in-person appearances from Proud Boys, neo-fascist fight clubs and border vigilantes, some of whom had been inactive for years.

Within extremist circles, the desire to capitalize on the migrant surge has been churning for months. In a Telegram channel for the New England neo-Nazi group NSC-131, the group’s leader has urged members to step up their engagement in physical “confrontations” around this issue.