Even if it’s not enough to make them vote the opposite way, it might be enough to make them not show up to vote against harris. Turnout changes in single digit percentages matters a lot
Note that polling doesn’t capture turnout data rather well. It has to make assumptions about turnout for weighting
The closets metric polls have to try to guesstimate turnout is enthusiasm, which is down ~15% for trump compared to 2020. In 2020, there was a enthusiasm gap in Trump’s favor. This year that’s flipped
Or if we look at say a subgroup like Niki Haley primary voters (~5-10% of republicans), there’s a marked drop in their support for Trump this year compared to 2020
The majority of them, 59%, said they voted for Trump in 2020. But now, only 45% plan to cast their ballots for him again in 2024, marking a 14-point difference.
I agree thats prob the best proxy. I don’t know that we’ll get any exit polling data from GA or NC yet, but the turnout numbers hopefully look good good for Harris. She needs wide margins to keep this out of the SC.
I think there’s a chance swaying a little more people than we might think - even if it’s a small percentage overall that can be swayed
Look for instances at the audience reactions to his lies about January 6th at his Univision Townhall. They show visable disgust
https://xcancel.com/MeidasTouch/status/1846746612980199817
Even if it’s not enough to make them vote the opposite way, it might be enough to make them not show up to vote against harris. Turnout changes in single digit percentages matters a lot
I mean thats just not what the data we have is saying.
Note that polling doesn’t capture turnout data rather well. It has to make assumptions about turnout for weighting
The closets metric polls have to try to guesstimate turnout is enthusiasm, which is down ~15% for trump compared to 2020. In 2020, there was a enthusiasm gap in Trump’s favor. This year that’s flipped
Or if we look at say a subgroup like Niki Haley primary voters (~5-10% of republicans), there’s a marked drop in their support for Trump this year compared to 2020
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/national/article293768789.html#storylink=cpy
Overall, this will probably look like small movments if it materializes, but in elections won on close margins this absolutely matters
I agree thats prob the best proxy. I don’t know that we’ll get any exit polling data from GA or NC yet, but the turnout numbers hopefully look good good for Harris. She needs wide margins to keep this out of the SC.