Note that polling doesn’t capture turnout data rather well. It has to make assumptions about turnout for weighting
The closets metric polls have to try to guesstimate turnout is enthusiasm, which is down ~15% for trump compared to 2020. In 2020, there was a enthusiasm gap in Trump’s favor. This year that’s flipped
Or if we look at say a subgroup like Niki Haley primary voters (~5-10% of republicans), there’s a marked drop in their support for Trump this year compared to 2020
The majority of them, 59%, said they voted for Trump in 2020. But now, only 45% plan to cast their ballots for him again in 2024, marking a 14-point difference.
I agree thats prob the best proxy. I don’t know that we’ll get any exit polling data from GA or NC yet, but the turnout numbers hopefully look good good for Harris. She needs wide margins to keep this out of the SC.
Note that polling doesn’t capture turnout data rather well. It has to make assumptions about turnout for weighting
The closets metric polls have to try to guesstimate turnout is enthusiasm, which is down ~15% for trump compared to 2020. In 2020, there was a enthusiasm gap in Trump’s favor. This year that’s flipped
Or if we look at say a subgroup like Niki Haley primary voters (~5-10% of republicans), there’s a marked drop in their support for Trump this year compared to 2020
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/national/article293768789.html#storylink=cpy
Overall, this will probably look like small movments if it materializes, but in elections won on close margins this absolutely matters
I agree thats prob the best proxy. I don’t know that we’ll get any exit polling data from GA or NC yet, but the turnout numbers hopefully look good good for Harris. She needs wide margins to keep this out of the SC.