According to senior defense officials, the Israeli government is not seeking to revive hostage talks and the political leadership is pushing for the gradual annexation of large parts of the Gaza Strip.
In closed-room discussions, these officials say the chances of reaching a hostage deal appear slim right now. One of the reasons cited is that since negotiations were suspended, there has been no discussion among international players involved in the talks.
In addition, they say, Israel’s political leaders have not held any discussions with the various security branches about the condition of the hostages. Army commanders in the field who spoke with Haaretz say the recent decision to launch operations in northern Gaza was taken without any in-depth discussion. They said it appeared that the operations were aimed principally at pressuring local residents, who were again told to evacuate the area for the coast as winter is approaching.
It is possible that the operation is laying the groundwork for a decision by the government to put into effect the so-called surrender or starve plan of Maj. Gen. (ret.) Giora Eiland. That plan calls for all the residents of northern Gaza to be evacuated to humanitarian zones in the south, with those choosing to remain deemed Hamas operatives and legitimate military targets. While Gazans in the south are getting humanitarian assistance, those who remain in the north will face hunger.
Defense officials who were asked to respond to the Eiland plan pointed out that it violated international law and that the chances of the United States and the international community supporting it were virtually zero. They said it would further undermine the legitimacy of Israel’s entire Gaza offensive.
The Israel Defense Forces planned a wide-ranging operation in north Gaza after the collapse of the latest round of hostage talks, with the aim of pressuring Hamas to return to the negotiating table. However, Israel’s war was soon redirected to the Lebanon front.
The 162nd Division, which had been operating in southern Gaza, was ordered to prepare a major assault on Jabalya refugee camp in the north, even though there was no intelligence to justify the move. The security establishment didn’t unanimously back the move, and some in the army and the Shin Bet security service warned that it might endanger the lives of hostages.
Sources told Haaretz that when troops entered Jabalya, they did not directly encounter any terrorists. The person pushing for the operation was the head of the Southern Command, Maj. Gen. Yaron Finkelman, before the first anniversary of the Gaza war.
Especially since six hostages were found shot to death after Israeli forces were approaching the place they were being held, the army has been warning that ground operations are endangering the lives of the 101 hostages remaining in Gaza. More recently, Hamas issued orders to its fighters to thwart Israeli rescue operations at all costs, including executing hostages if troops are approaching.
Intelligence officials estimate that before the war erupted, some 4,000 Gazans were known to be Hamas fighters, with an even greater number in the south. Even though Hamas’ Rafah Brigade has been degraded and has ceased operating as an organized army, many of the fighters left the combat zone before the IDF entered, they said. They added that other Hamas fighters are operating from camps in the Central Gaza Strip, where the IDF has not yet been active. Meanwhile, Hamas dominates all civilian activity in the enclave. The defense establishment has urged the government to agree to some form of international governance for Gaza, but so far its appeals have been turned down. Hamas has formed a police unit called Arrow Force that numbers several hundred men. Its main task is to crack down on anyone opposed to Hamas rule. Hamas’ greatest concern is that the difficult humanitarian conditions in Gaza will cause the residents to revolt.
Nevertheless, after a year of war, many Gazans believe that, once the fighting is over, the organization will remain in control and therefore fear speaking out against it. Until now, Hamas’ efforts to prevent civilians from obeying IDF evacuation orders has not been successful because of the danger of remaining in evacuated areas. However, after being displaced from their homes several times in the past year, more and more residents are seemingly willing to take the risk of staying in combat zones.
The defense establishment sees putting an end to Hamas rule in Gaza as a much more complex challenge than the war itself. Senior officials say that even though it has been hit hard militarily, Hamas is still the only civilian authority in Gaza. If anything, the civilian population has become more dependent on the organization than ever, partly because it distributes humanitarian aid.
Focusing of Netanyahu is a false catharsis, it makes the problem something external and non-actionable for most people while reducing it to a single actor. I will explain what I mean by this by providing some additional context.
The first is that the US is the dominant superpower, Israel’s guarantor and sponsor. It manufactures and gifts the weapons if genocide you see used to burn refugee children alive. They are manufactured by people with “good union jobs” in the US. The US creates and maintains propaganda in support of Israel, provides diplomatic cover both in the UN and direct threats and consequences for those who oppose the apartheid regime, provides direct military, logistics, and recon support, and constantly sends cash. The US is the dominant partner in that relationship and has near dictatorial power. A single call from Reagan or Bush made them stop similar campaigns. Biden, and implicitly the state apparatus behind him, are pushing the genocide button. The US is also where most, or at least a plurakity, of Lemmitors live. They can help organize against the genocide carried out his their state. If the genocide is treated as a character flaw of Netanyahu, it becomes possible to say, “well that’s Israeli voters’ problem”.
The other important piece of context is that Netanyahu is roughly as bloodthirsty as the wider Zionist settler population. He is not actually uniquely terrible relative to the wider public, as if he is an illegitimate representative or the likely alternative is better. Bibi’s unpopularity since October 7 stems from not sufficiently feeding the security and superiority complex of the ethnic supremacist society that is the Zionist entity. The public wants more “retribution”. It is pissed the hostages aren’t back, not that they are gemociding Gaza. They are pissed that settlers fled Northern Israel after facing 1/100th of what Palestinians face. They broke a rapist, a torturer of Palestinian prisoners out of jail over outrage that he face any consequences. They threatened state authorities into dropping it and he was paraded around on TV. They are that racist. Netanyahu’s current unpopularity stems more from his lack of performance in support of ethnic supremacy. His popularity went up when they started bombing residential areas of Lebanon. All of this is to say that the genocide is popular and if Bibi were replaced you would see actions that rhyme with the current status quo. You might even see the people to his right gain power, the more overt ethnic supremacists that don’t even try to pretend otherwise for foreign media.