Florida is nearing toss-up status as poll shows Trump’s lead nearly vanished
www.independent.co.uk
Race and age of Florida respondents seemed to correlate with which candidate they supported
  • usernamesAreTrickyOP
    131·
    3 months ago

    Keep in mind that ~R+3 is itself close and withing the margin of error of a lot of polls. Many of the swing states have had near D+3 margins in the average at one point

    • TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world
      171·
      3 months ago

      A bigger issue than MOE is structural bias.

      Here is FL 2020:

      Dem’s face a self-imposed structural disadvantage in both inter and intrastate models.

      R+3 in FL should be read more accurately as R+6 or R+7 based on the best most recent structural bias measurement we have. The article is weekend whacking material.

      • usernamesAreTrickyOP
        131·
        3 months ago

        That’s assuming the polling error goes the same way. That’s not a given at all especially as many pollsters have made methodology changes such as some doing much heavier rural sampling

        Polling error has gone both directions in the past. Dems were underestimated by polls in 2012 for instance

        • TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world
          53·
          3 months ago

          You should base it on the data we have. The data we have says the polling bias for FL leans +3-4 for Republicans.

          You dont get to just “wish” it were some other way and base expectations around that.

          • usernamesAreTrickyOP
            51·
            3 months ago

            Polling error has historically moved in inconsistent direction. Data goes back further than 2020. In 2012, Democrats were underestimated in florida by ~2 points. Romney was up 1.5% in Florida poll average vs Obama winning Florida by 0.9%

            Assuming it certain to go that way is not a given either. My point is that you cannot be certain about it

            • TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world
              24·
              3 months ago

              My point is that you cannot be certain about it

              Yeah and thats not really a point. Everything has uncertainty. We have to and do make judgements in the face of uncertainty of reality all the time.

              If you choose to live in a fact based reality rather, this is the thing we have.

              • usernamesAreTrickyOP
                41·
                3 months ago

                That’s not how your earlier comments are phrased. The earlier comments declare that this is a given structural bias and that it will always exist. How is entirely ignoring the 2012 election any more real than saying we can’t be sure?

                • TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world
                  32·
                  3 months ago

                  declare that this is a given structural bias and that it will always exist

                  You just lack reading comprehension.

                  The quote is:

                  best most recent structural bias measurement

                  The previous comments said, “the best most recent estimate of structural bias”, which was Trump v Biden 2020. Its the best because its not a simulation or modeling. Its two measured values. I’ve seen simulations and statistical models to estimate things like structural bias, but none of them are as good as a measurement. We should use the measurement.

                  I get it. You’ve got an axe to grind. And at this point you might be better off inside a warm fantastic cocoon where Harris is crushing it and is going to win FL and TX. It might be the last light of joy you get to experience.

                  • usernamesAreTrickyOP
                    42·
                    3 months ago

                    My response was more so to the “you don’t get to ‘wish’” part. It could go the same way, it could not. It’s not consistent year to year. Assuming it is when long term data does not support that, isn’t helpful

                    Over the long term, there is no meaningful partisan statistical bias in polling. All the polls in our data set combine for a weighted average statistical bias of 0.3 points toward Democrats. Individual election cycles can have more significant biases — and, importantly, it usually runs in the same direction for every office — but there is no pattern from year to year

                    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/weve-updated-our-pollster-ratings-ahead-of-the-2020-general-election/

                    No where am I claiming that Harris definitely will necessarily be underestimated, I am saying it is possible. Or perhaps even just underestimated by less. Dismissing the possibility out of hand by N=1 is what I am responding to