Florida is nearing toss-up status as poll shows Trump’s lead nearly vanished
www.independent.co.uk
Race and age of Florida respondents seemed to correlate with which candidate they supported
  • TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world
    53·
    2 months ago

    You should base it on the data we have. The data we have says the polling bias for FL leans +3-4 for Republicans.

    You dont get to just “wish” it were some other way and base expectations around that.

    • usernamesAreTrickyOP
      51·
      2 months ago

      Polling error has historically moved in inconsistent direction. Data goes back further than 2020. In 2012, Democrats were underestimated in florida by ~2 points. Romney was up 1.5% in Florida poll average vs Obama winning Florida by 0.9%

      Assuming it certain to go that way is not a given either. My point is that you cannot be certain about it

      • TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world
        24·
        2 months ago

        My point is that you cannot be certain about it

        Yeah and thats not really a point. Everything has uncertainty. We have to and do make judgements in the face of uncertainty of reality all the time.

        If you choose to live in a fact based reality rather, this is the thing we have.

        • usernamesAreTrickyOP
          41·
          2 months ago

          That’s not how your earlier comments are phrased. The earlier comments declare that this is a given structural bias and that it will always exist. How is entirely ignoring the 2012 election any more real than saying we can’t be sure?

          • TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world
            32·
            2 months ago

            declare that this is a given structural bias and that it will always exist

            You just lack reading comprehension.

            The quote is:

            best most recent structural bias measurement

            The previous comments said, “the best most recent estimate of structural bias”, which was Trump v Biden 2020. Its the best because its not a simulation or modeling. Its two measured values. I’ve seen simulations and statistical models to estimate things like structural bias, but none of them are as good as a measurement. We should use the measurement.

            I get it. You’ve got an axe to grind. And at this point you might be better off inside a warm fantastic cocoon where Harris is crushing it and is going to win FL and TX. It might be the last light of joy you get to experience.

            • usernamesAreTrickyOP
              42·
              2 months ago

              My response was more so to the “you don’t get to ‘wish’” part. It could go the same way, it could not. It’s not consistent year to year. Assuming it is when long term data does not support that, isn’t helpful

              Over the long term, there is no meaningful partisan statistical bias in polling. All the polls in our data set combine for a weighted average statistical bias of 0.3 points toward Democrats. Individual election cycles can have more significant biases — and, importantly, it usually runs in the same direction for every office — but there is no pattern from year to year

              https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/weve-updated-our-pollster-ratings-ahead-of-the-2020-general-election/

              No where am I claiming that Harris definitely will necessarily be underestimated, I am saying it is possible. Or perhaps even just underestimated by less. Dismissing the possibility out of hand by N=1 is what I am responding to