he’s listening old music

2006 - 07

I guess this is how my dad felt the first time he heard REO Speedwagon on the oldies station.

Hey you! Piss off with that fact checking . We’re having an America bad always and forever circle-jerk in here.

Yes, some of the questions in the poll address the fraction of the poll who did vote for someone other than Harris. Which is why I wrote ‘almost’. The poll completely ignores the question of actual fraction of voters that those questions are attempting to represent (not many) as well as what the much, much larger fraction of voters who voted for both Biden and Harris thought. You have to go to the other poll for that and the answers about the influence of Biden’s policy toward providing weapons to Israel become less clear.

7. Did the Biden administration’s policy of providing taxpayer-funded weapons to Israel make you [more likely to vote for Kamala Harris in 2024, less likely], or make no difference?

More likely . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14%

Less likely . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . … . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9%

Make no difference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77%

8. If Kamala Harris had pledged to break from President Biden’s policy toward Gaza by promising to withhold additional weapons to Israel for committing human rights abuses against Palestinian civilians, would it have made you [more enthusiastic, less enthusiastic] to vote for Harris, or make no difference? Asked of those who voted for Harris

More enthusiastic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35%

Less enthusiastic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5%

Make no difference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59%

Forcing one to wonder how exactly the translation between enthusiasm and voting likelihood works. The only thing that does seem to be clear is ‘makes no difference’ was by far the most popular opinion, which is pretty easy to read as people cared most about something else.

Good job pretending like you don’t understand that the electoral college exists and why that matters.

And in order to figure what was most important to voters you also have to consider the ones that actually, you know, voted. Which that poll almost entirely ignores.

Except these people didn’t decide the election, because almost nobody who voted where it matters did this and if every one of them had shown up the outcome would have been the same. Across the six states that flipped from 2020 to 2024, Harris lost less than 80,000 votes combined. She was less than a percent off Biden’s record setting performance. Trump gained more than 800,000 votes in the same places. The block that decided the election was not Democrats ‘staying home,’ it was independant and irregular voters showing up—for Trump.

Not enough foil, maybe add a couple old cds.

For some time, there has been a forecast that The Great Salt Lake, once one of the largest inland salt lakes in the world.

:eyetwitch:

Title is simply a lie. There are good arguments against what Nintendo does, but if you can’t make your case honestly, then you aren’t worth listening to.

Apparently there are still people who don’t know that international justice is and always has been an aspiration.

In practice the only war crime that has ever mattered is losing.

This so cool, the bio nerd in me is giddy at this.

clearly there

yes

Or he could just say he wants to repeal the law here and overnight republicans with their majorities will rush to pass a law to do just that while pretending they had nothing to do with initial law, after they’ve finished fellating him, of course.

Tact is a personal weakness of mine, so my apologies in advance if this comes across overly curt or blunt, it is not my intention to be hurtful.

Despite your assertion to the contrary, Jay is not your boyfriend.

I’m not frustrated, even slightly.

What discussion is over then? What is the purpose of bringing this up in all future elections, as the title directs me to do?

You cannot expect me to believe this schtick where you pretend this information doesn’t belong in the context of the broader discussion about the outcome of the 2024 election. This is not a free floating factoid you happened to be interested in for the purely intellectual pursuit of understanding the motivations of Democratic voters. What is the importance of this information outside of that context?

19 million people in states where the outcome was a foregone conclusion. In the six states that flipped the difference was less than 80,000 votes.

//edit: Ok I was being flippant with this reply after my annoyance with another thread about this same thing. I didn’t even really stop to process just how dumb that 19 million number is. Are we supposed to believe that 19 million people didn’t vote for Harris after voting for Biden, but since the Actual difference in outcome was only about 6 million votes that Harris found 13 million other people to show up and take their place? Seems pretty fucking unlikely considering that the overwhelming majority of people who don’t vote aren’t registered and never vote.

I don’t think takes an expertise in the music business to see the upside of engaging with a billion person market.

Brother, total voter turnout in 2024 has nothing to do with who voted in 2020.

Nothing? No, really. Nothing?

Sure was weird to spend so much effort looking at this particular group of people in the OP then. I think you’re grasping at straws here.

I guess going from “The discussion is over.” to “it is entirely possible” is progress of a sort.

Some pedantry from me.

We can’t rule out the decisiveness of this issue based on the contents of this thread. I have seen enough other polling about low engagement/infrequent voters to have convinced me throroughly that those folks who might have turned out, but did not favored Trump because they thought he would be better on the economy.

Even that, I admit, does not mean there was not some way for Harris to come out against Israel and distance herself from Biden that would have managed to motivate a subset of low engagement voters who weren’t that concerned about the economy, were concerned primarily about Gaza, and large enough to be decisive, but we’re getting pretty thin thin with the should/could/would haves here.

If you’re telling me that you think Harris lost 20% of Biden’s voters to Trump in those 6 states, then yes, one of us definitely isn’t reading. But it ain’t me.