• 17 Posts
  • 242 Comments
Joined 8 months ago
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Cake day: July 24th, 2024

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  • I’m tired so please correct any mistakes.

    If we just take the current count as-is (55% counted, 34 seats decided, 3 in doubt):

    • labor = 15
    • lib+nat = 10+2 = 12
    • greens = 4
    • one nation = 1
    • aus christians = 1
    • legalise cannabis = 1

    19 votes is a majority.

    • If Labor get all three remaining, they end up with 18 and need any one extra vote to give them a majority.

    • But if Labor only get two and the other goes to Lib/Nat, only Lib, Nat or the Greens can give them a majority

    • If Lib+Nat get all three remaining, and if we assume for the sake of example that they always have one nation and aus christians, they still only have 17 and need either Green or Labor for a majority. Greens can also still give Labor a majority in this situation.

    • If, somehow, one nation, christians or cannabis get all three, they can give Labor a majority without Greens’ help, but can’t give Lib+Nats a majority without Greens.

    The bottom line is, in any situation from here, Labor cannot form majority alone, and Labor+Greens will always form majority. However, if Labor are lucky, they could instead form a majority with Legalise Cannabis Australia, or another minor party, rather than Greens. And, obviously, Labor and Liberals can always form a majority on issues they agree on.











  • and no one in the rest of the world respects them

    That’s a bit near-sighted. Their regional neighbours obviously aren’t happy about them, nor 5EYES states like Australia, but to other regions like Africa and the Middle-East, their long-time bullies are countries such as the US, Britain and France (and in many cases that’s not just pushing boundaries, but a full-on military occupation and colonisation), so China’s relatively-peaceful diplomacy there in contrast to IMF economic strategies has certainly won wide respect there, and I suspect the USA’s recent diplomatic suicide, destruction of USAID and other forms of ‘turning inward’ will make China more appealing to distant countries as a stable and (in their eyes) relatively friendly partner.

    About half the world (the Global South) generally sides politically with them more than the West, so this isn’t just nitpicking. The bottom line is that with three main powers to choose from, China (despite their rudeness in our region) is the one which has hurt the least of them.

    This quote from a US DARPA medicine worker gives a typical example of how distant countries perceive Western and Eastern powers:

    When you were on the ground, how did our engagement in Africa stack up with Chinese and Russian engagement? Did you cross paths?

    Yeah. There’s an example of where we were waiting to go in to meet with an African delegation. I won’t name the country, but our team was prepared to speak in French — we had translators. And we got half an hour with the delegation from their Ministry of Health. We walked out, and the Chinese delegation came in, but they went to the effort of not only knowing French, but also knowing a local language that none of us had ever heard, and they spoke in that language to their hosts. We were ushered out. The Chinese stayed for three hours.

    They had developed a deeper relationship than we had, mainly because they were outspending us. Obviously, they built the African CDC and have made some major investments in Africa. Now, are we losing that diplomatic battle? It’s hard to say, but I can tell you that they’re putting an enormous amount of funding into Africa to develop as much credibility as they can on the infectious disease and clinical front, furthering the agenda that President Xi has laid out.



  • It’s aggravating they’re such a danger because they’re all such pathetic losers.

    Exactly. When communities have organised in response, the NSN get chased up the road even when they bring out knives (see: failed attack on Gummo Cafe). But when a community does nothing, they’re left with a group of a couple of dozen interstate tourists trying to seek attention and intimidate people, often with a police line protecting them. Any group of a dozen, no matter how pathetic, will make unorganised individuals less likely to do anything, and the problem only grows if they gain greater numbers to mobilise.

    One of them is on record at a UK fascist conference saying that when they’re outnumbered and getting told to leave, they “feel like shit, it’s horrifying”.