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Joined 3 years ago
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Cake day: March 24th, 2022

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  • Well, the view on all this depends on our prediction, what would have happened if we did not start the war.

    1. Our army provided evidence that Ukraine planned a massive attack on LNR and DNR in march of this year. The questions are: 1.1) Is this true? 1.2) If yes, could we let Ukraine conquer them? 1.3) If no and we used our army, how will it go for us compared to current situation? More or less death/destruction?
    2. Our leadership declared that letting Ukraine be will create existential treat for us. The questions here are similar, is it true, what specifically could happen to us etc.

    I think, at least 1.1 is neccessary for formulating opinion about situation.


  • I see it this way:

    1. Russia is moving large amount of forces from Kiev and other places to the east, where the most powerful part of Ukraine army is holding near Donetsk.
    2. In doing so it relinquished control of territories around Kiev and some other places.
    3. Ukraine is moving large amount of forces from Kiev and other places to the east, probably to Dnepr(city, somewhat to the west of Donetsk.
    4. Overall, approximately half of the forces of each side will be between Dnepr and Donetsk (probably).
    5. There will be big battle there (it is already going and will intensify). It may decide the outcome of war.
    6. It seems that people inside Russia are fairly confident in winning this battle but it will not be easy.
    7. People in Russia do not know, what are the plans after the battle. Will we stop there? Take east/south Ukraine? Additionaly take central Ukraine (Kiev is there)? Take west part of the country? Nobody knows (except, maybe, leadership).