Katsuji Nakazawa is a Tokyo-based senior staff and editorial writer at Nikkei. He spent seven years in China as a correspondent and later as China bureau chief. He was the 2014 recipient of the Vaughn-Ueda International Journalist prize.

During a meeting in Moscow back in March, Russian President Vladimir Putin told his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping that Russia “will fight for [at least] five years” in Ukraine, sources have revealed.

This was apparently Putin’s way of summarizing a situation that at the time was not favorable to Russia and assuring Xi that Russia would emerge victorious in the end.The likely implication was that a protracted war would favor China’s well-armed partner.

Taken another way, the remark was also a warning to Xi not to change his pro-Russia stance.

The trip was Xi’s first to Russia after Moscow launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. It was also the first time Xi visited a leading nation after China lifted its strict zero-COIVD policy.

Whether Xi was convinced, Putin’s remark at the summit holds the key to understanding a series of mysterious developments in Russia-China relations, from a Chinese peace mission to Europe in May to China sacking its foreign minister months later.