Climate activist Greta Thunberg has been briefly interrupted by a man who approached her on stage after she invited a Palestinian and an Afghan woman to speak at a climate protest in the Dutch capital.
That said, I don’t think there’s a chance in hell any major power forks over cheap energy while other major powers continue to use it.
It’s about economic development. It’s not even about you or me willing to live without cars or other dependencies on fossil fuels. It’s about dependence on fossil fuel allowing nations to progress faster than those without it.
The powers that be will continue to pull the strings to make sure they have as much control as possible. It’s not about Americans competing with Americans. It’s about Americans (the west) competing with the Chinese and Russians, militarily and economically.
None of them will give up fossil fuels so long as it remains the cheapest option.
I see many people saying this, and claiming that therefore any protest or attempt at doing anything for the environment is futile. But although it will be hard, protest and change is also necessary. In the Netherlands, aggresive protests have already ensured that fossil subsidies (38 billion euros of subsidies to companies that work with fossil fuels) are a major talking point for the upcoming election. Doing nothing isn’t an option anymore.
So, what’s your proposed solution? Because at the moment protests like this are working and simply throwing up our hands and saying ‘it’s impossible’ isn’t an option. So what to do? I’d argue we keep doing things like this until a better solution is found, what about you?
I never said to stop. Just that I don’t expect these problems to be solved.
What makes you think protests are working?
Governments only forego oil when it is no longer the cheapest option.
I think people like you need to accept that some problems are so deeply rooted in global society that we will not be able to solve them without a global shift in culture.
As long as most people think ‘progress as fast as possible at any cost,’ that’s what we’re going to do.
Of course they work. Not as quickly and as well as we might hope, but they do work. You say that a global shift in culture is needed. I agree and these protests are an essential part of shift.
I understand that none of this is easy, but again what are you proposing we do instead? If you believe protests are not enough on their own then what, in your opinion, is the solution? Genuine question. You mention a global shift in culture is required. How? Let’s talk.
That’s not ‘working.’ If they were working, then we can expect nations to stop using oil even when it’s the cheapest option.
That’s not happening, so my point remains that the only thing to stop nations from using oil is for it to no longer be the cheapest option.
We are not going to stop using oil until it becomes too expensive.
but again what are you proposing we do instead
You keep asking me this as though there is a viable solution. I said just said “I think people like you need to accept that some problems are so deeply rooted in global society that we will not be able to solve them without a global shift in culture.”
It would take a global shift in culture that doesn’t even have to do with oil. It has to do with greed and foregoing progressing as fast as possible to beat out the competition. Until that happens, nations will not stop using oil.
All the promises you see are just posturing by governments to push the problem down the line so they’re not responsible for it.
Yes, I can understand that, but surely you can understand that getting to the point of nations no longer using oil isn’t going to happen overnight? That change, that ‘global shift in culture’ you mention isn’t something we’ll wake up to tomorrow. They’ll be no single event we can point to and say ‘see? It’s fixed!’. Change will be formed from millions of events, large and small. The point im making is that this change is happening, slowly yes, but it is happening. These protests that you say are not working are part of the very same culture shift you state (correctly) is required.
Also, don’t forget that in the space of a few years renewables have gone from basically a pipe dream to being so affordable and upscaleable that oil companies are losing their shit. They know the writing is on the wall and they are doing everything they can to prevent that. You are literally watching their demise. Are they not going down without a fight? No. Are the world’s governments still too set in their ways? Yes. Is this change happening too slow? Also yes. But again, it is happening, and I’ll take slow change over none any day.
And you know what? Maybe, just maybe doing something will have no affect. But that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t at least try. The only guarantee of failure is to not even try in the first place.
You seem frustrated by the state of things, and I get that. Its all too easy to read all the negativity in the media and lose track of the wider picture. It’s awful watching the powers that be dally and drag their feet whilst the world burns and people die. But let’s try and not make our first reaction to positive action, like this story be defeatism.
Here are some good news stories from around the world. Maybe take some time to read them and remind yourself that good things are happening? It’s important to stay informed, not just about the bad news but about the good stuff as well:
China is hitting peak carbon years ahead of schedule. This year, they deployed more solar than the entire installed capacity in the United States (and DOUBLE the installation volume last year). They hit peak oil this year, years ahead of estimates even a few months ago. China is so far ahead of their Paris Agreement climate goals it’s not even funny. This is, of course, all without considering China’s massive reforestation efforts which simultaneously combat growing desertification and pull CO2 out of the air. China is also targeting peak coal in the next year or two and, based on the rate of renewables deployment, seems to be on track to do so. Every single tangible target and projection is getting blown out of the water and there’s no reason to expect that to slow down because renewables make more economic sense than fossil fuels.
China is shifting from using coal for base load to using coal to smooth out demand peaks: the idea is to have a bunch of fossil fuel plants idling until demand can’t be met by renewables. This isn’t just my opinion, though: it’s corroborated by analysts at S&P Global and others. Rolling blackouts became a huge issue last year and fossil fuels are still one of the most flexible sources of energy to deal with peaking demand. In fact, China recently instituted a policy to pay coal plants to stay off. Coal plant utilization in China has already dropped from a high of ~70% to about 53% (US: 49.3% coal, 57% natural gas).
This is, of course, even as China’s carbon-intensive construction industry contracts and investment shifts towards lower carbon manufacturing in the form of electric vehicles, solar panels, semiconductors, etc.
This progress has been made with hundreds of billions of dollars in government investment (that could have been spent elsewhere…) and from the government intentionally sacrificing short-term GDP growth from the real estate industry in exchange for reduced emissions from construction.
I love Greta and agree with what she’s doing.
That said, I don’t think there’s a chance in hell any major power forks over cheap energy while other major powers continue to use it.
It’s about economic development. It’s not even about you or me willing to live without cars or other dependencies on fossil fuels. It’s about dependence on fossil fuel allowing nations to progress faster than those without it.
The powers that be will continue to pull the strings to make sure they have as much control as possible. It’s not about Americans competing with Americans. It’s about Americans (the west) competing with the Chinese and Russians, militarily and economically.
None of them will give up fossil fuels so long as it remains the cheapest option.
I see many people saying this, and claiming that therefore any protest or attempt at doing anything for the environment is futile. But although it will be hard, protest and change is also necessary. In the Netherlands, aggresive protests have already ensured that fossil subsidies (38 billion euros of subsidies to companies that work with fossil fuels) are a major talking point for the upcoming election. Doing nothing isn’t an option anymore.
Bingo. Well said.
So, what’s your proposed solution? Because at the moment protests like this are working and simply throwing up our hands and saying ‘it’s impossible’ isn’t an option. So what to do? I’d argue we keep doing things like this until a better solution is found, what about you?
I never said to stop. Just that I don’t expect these problems to be solved.
What makes you think protests are working?
Governments only forego oil when it is no longer the cheapest option.
I think people like you need to accept that some problems are so deeply rooted in global society that we will not be able to solve them without a global shift in culture.
As long as most people think ‘progress as fast as possible at any cost,’ that’s what we’re going to do.
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20230421-earth-day-the-science-of-climate-change-protest
https://theconversation.com/heres-why-we-need-climate-protests-even-if-some-think-theyre-annoying-172191
https://www.dw.com/en/disruptive-climate-protests-do-they-help-or-hinder/a-61379793
Of course they work. Not as quickly and as well as we might hope, but they do work. You say that a global shift in culture is needed. I agree and these protests are an essential part of shift.
Also, support for wide ranging global change is more wide spread than you might think, and these protests are a example of that: https://www.undp.org/press-releases/worlds-largest-survey-public-opinion-climate-change-majority-people-call-wide-ranging-action
I understand that none of this is easy, but again what are you proposing we do instead? If you believe protests are not enough on their own then what, in your opinion, is the solution? Genuine question. You mention a global shift in culture is required. How? Let’s talk.
That’s not ‘working.’ If they were working, then we can expect nations to stop using oil even when it’s the cheapest option.
That’s not happening, so my point remains that the only thing to stop nations from using oil is for it to no longer be the cheapest option.
We are not going to stop using oil until it becomes too expensive.
You keep asking me this as though there is a viable solution. I said just said “I think people like you need to accept that some problems are so deeply rooted in global society that we will not be able to solve them without a global shift in culture.”
It would take a global shift in culture that doesn’t even have to do with oil. It has to do with greed and foregoing progressing as fast as possible to beat out the competition. Until that happens, nations will not stop using oil.
All the promises you see are just posturing by governments to push the problem down the line so they’re not responsible for it.
Heck, this was just posed on /c/news today: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/nov/09/alaska-willow-oil-drilling-environment
Unfortunately, it’s possible that doing something will have the same effect as doing nothing. Can you understand that?
It’s also possible that doing something will slowly lead to the shift you’re talking about and be better than doing nothing. So isn’t it worth trying?
I never said to stop trying.
It is possible, I just don’t think it will happen.
Yes, I can understand that, but surely you can understand that getting to the point of nations no longer using oil isn’t going to happen overnight? That change, that ‘global shift in culture’ you mention isn’t something we’ll wake up to tomorrow. They’ll be no single event we can point to and say ‘see? It’s fixed!’. Change will be formed from millions of events, large and small. The point im making is that this change is happening, slowly yes, but it is happening. These protests that you say are not working are part of the very same culture shift you state (correctly) is required.
Also, don’t forget that in the space of a few years renewables have gone from basically a pipe dream to being so affordable and upscaleable that oil companies are losing their shit. They know the writing is on the wall and they are doing everything they can to prevent that. You are literally watching their demise. Are they not going down without a fight? No. Are the world’s governments still too set in their ways? Yes. Is this change happening too slow? Also yes. But again, it is happening, and I’ll take slow change over none any day.
And you know what? Maybe, just maybe doing something will have no affect. But that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t at least try. The only guarantee of failure is to not even try in the first place.
You seem frustrated by the state of things, and I get that. Its all too easy to read all the negativity in the media and lose track of the wider picture. It’s awful watching the powers that be dally and drag their feet whilst the world burns and people die. But let’s try and not make our first reaction to positive action, like this story be defeatism.
Here are some good news stories from around the world. Maybe take some time to read them and remind yourself that good things are happening? It’s important to stay informed, not just about the bad news but about the good stuff as well:
https://futurecrunch.com/goodnews/
China is hitting peak carbon years ahead of schedule. This year, they deployed more solar than the entire installed capacity in the United States (and DOUBLE the installation volume last year). They hit peak oil this year, years ahead of estimates even a few months ago. China is so far ahead of their Paris Agreement climate goals it’s not even funny. This is, of course, all without considering China’s massive reforestation efforts which simultaneously combat growing desertification and pull CO2 out of the air. China is also targeting peak coal in the next year or two and, based on the rate of renewables deployment, seems to be on track to do so. Every single tangible target and projection is getting blown out of the water and there’s no reason to expect that to slow down because renewables make more economic sense than fossil fuels.
China is shifting from using coal for base load to using coal to smooth out demand peaks: the idea is to have a bunch of fossil fuel plants idling until demand can’t be met by renewables. This isn’t just my opinion, though: it’s corroborated by analysts at S&P Global and others. Rolling blackouts became a huge issue last year and fossil fuels are still one of the most flexible sources of energy to deal with peaking demand. In fact, China recently instituted a policy to pay coal plants to stay off. Coal plant utilization in China has already dropped from a high of ~70% to about 53% (US: 49.3% coal, 57% natural gas).
This is, of course, even as China’s carbon-intensive construction industry contracts and investment shifts towards lower carbon manufacturing in the form of electric vehicles, solar panels, semiconductors, etc.
This progress has been made with hundreds of billions of dollars in government investment (that could have been spent elsewhere…) and from the government intentionally sacrificing short-term GDP growth from the real estate industry in exchange for reduced emissions from construction.
Underrated comment. There’s some deep understanding. Thanks.