The Western Empire collapsed because no-one really cared to preserve the state anymore. The rise of Catholicism meant power shifted to the Church, and those who desired that kind of power followed it and entered into the Church, and when the Empire collapsed, the Church remained and continued to exert power over the barbarian conquerors. I’m not sure how useful parallels with Roma are, but the obvious one here is the US state becoming a front for corporate power, which I suppose it always has been but not in the absolute sense that is occurring now.
I don’t really see the US state collapsing. I don’t think anything suggests that it is, only that a massive cultural shift is occurring and that it is losing its world hegemony. I expect the cultural shift/post-boomer populace will be placated with something like UBI, perhaps in exchange for some kind of service, so that we will have a genuine tech-feudalism (you will own nothing and you will be happy). Without UBI or some kind of concessions to the working class, the state probably will collapse, but I think these concessions will be made eventually, because without Boomers, and with the destruction of the middle class which neoliberalism is working towards and will ultimately complete, I don’t see how the Bourgeoisie maintain power otherwise.
The other possibility is outright fascism, although I think the demographics of the US make a fascism based in white supremacy or Christianity basically impossible now. Of course there could be some specific minority target. But I don’t think it’s the likely outcome. The US will just remain a borderline, closeted fascist state in the way that it always has been.
If states break away and form countries, presumably as a result of the culture war taking some kind of insanely dramatic turn, then fascist/white supremacist states are likely, which would be the worst possible outcome, not only for Americans but for the world. If Nazi’s get their hands on nukes, civilisation is done for.
I agree, i think in general people make too much out of percieved historical parallels. Thie point i was trying to make was more about how difficult it is the create a timeline of decline and/or collapse even in history, where we already know what happened, let alone when trying to predict the future.
I don’t really see the US state collapsing
I agree with this in the sense that i don’t think the Balkanization will take place in the US in the way its traditionally concieved of, with US states breaking off and forming their own countries. In a sense the state would still be intact - collecting taxes, dispensing money to the states, and operating the military. But i do think tge federal gov has shown a trend of doing nothing on what should be national problems (pandemics, environmental disasters) and i think that will continue.
Without UBI or some kind of concessions to the working class, the state probably will collapse,
I’m not as optimistic about concessions generally, but i could see what you’re talking about, and if anything remotely approaching a concession happens it would probably be the kind of UBI you’re talking about. It feels less like an outright concession than a necessity to make the kind if society where “you will own nothing and like it” work the way the ruling class want it to, but thats probably me splitting hairs over the term concession.
The other possibility is outright fascism, although I think the demographics of the US make a fascism based in white supremacy or Christianity basically impossible now.
I hope you’re right about that. I think we could see some states have christo-fascist governments in the kind of soft Balkanization i think is most likely. Minority rule in the US is the norm, not the exception, and there have been conscious moves on the stare level for over a decade to strengthen minority rule byvthe right in every state with a Republican government. The repeal of the protections imposed on firmer Confederate states by the Voting Rights Act by the Sumpreme Court opened the floddgates after they were already pushing legislation to promote minority rule.
Like i said I’m not as optimistic about concessions happening at this point in the US, and i think that a lack of that, plus the ruling class’s insistence on confrontations with China and Russia say a lot for the possiblity of seeing fascism rather than concessions.
It’s really hard to predict. It will probably he slower, more boring, and far worse than whatever our best preductions could possibly be.
The Western Empire collapsed because no-one really cared to preserve the state anymore. The rise of Catholicism meant power shifted to the Church, and those who desired that kind of power followed it and entered into the Church, and when the Empire collapsed, the Church remained and continued to exert power over the barbarian conquerors. I’m not sure how useful parallels with Roma are, but the obvious one here is the US state becoming a front for corporate power, which I suppose it always has been but not in the absolute sense that is occurring now.
I don’t really see the US state collapsing. I don’t think anything suggests that it is, only that a massive cultural shift is occurring and that it is losing its world hegemony. I expect the cultural shift/post-boomer populace will be placated with something like UBI, perhaps in exchange for some kind of service, so that we will have a genuine tech-feudalism (you will own nothing and you will be happy). Without UBI or some kind of concessions to the working class, the state probably will collapse, but I think these concessions will be made eventually, because without Boomers, and with the destruction of the middle class which neoliberalism is working towards and will ultimately complete, I don’t see how the Bourgeoisie maintain power otherwise.
The other possibility is outright fascism, although I think the demographics of the US make a fascism based in white supremacy or Christianity basically impossible now. Of course there could be some specific minority target. But I don’t think it’s the likely outcome. The US will just remain a borderline, closeted fascist state in the way that it always has been.
If states break away and form countries, presumably as a result of the culture war taking some kind of insanely dramatic turn, then fascist/white supremacist states are likely, which would be the worst possible outcome, not only for Americans but for the world. If Nazi’s get their hands on nukes, civilisation is done for.
I agree, i think in general people make too much out of percieved historical parallels. Thie point i was trying to make was more about how difficult it is the create a timeline of decline and/or collapse even in history, where we already know what happened, let alone when trying to predict the future.
I agree with this in the sense that i don’t think the Balkanization will take place in the US in the way its traditionally concieved of, with US states breaking off and forming their own countries. In a sense the state would still be intact - collecting taxes, dispensing money to the states, and operating the military. But i do think tge federal gov has shown a trend of doing nothing on what should be national problems (pandemics, environmental disasters) and i think that will continue.
I’m not as optimistic about concessions generally, but i could see what you’re talking about, and if anything remotely approaching a concession happens it would probably be the kind of UBI you’re talking about. It feels less like an outright concession than a necessity to make the kind if society where “you will own nothing and like it” work the way the ruling class want it to, but thats probably me splitting hairs over the term concession.
I hope you’re right about that. I think we could see some states have christo-fascist governments in the kind of soft Balkanization i think is most likely. Minority rule in the US is the norm, not the exception, and there have been conscious moves on the stare level for over a decade to strengthen minority rule byvthe right in every state with a Republican government. The repeal of the protections imposed on firmer Confederate states by the Voting Rights Act by the Sumpreme Court opened the floddgates after they were already pushing legislation to promote minority rule.
Like i said I’m not as optimistic about concessions happening at this point in the US, and i think that a lack of that, plus the ruling class’s insistence on confrontations with China and Russia say a lot for the possiblity of seeing fascism rather than concessions.
It’s really hard to predict. It will probably he slower, more boring, and far worse than whatever our best preductions could possibly be.