When things collapse they collapse slowly, then all at once. The major problem for the U.S. hegemonically is that almost all of our manufacturing input (including the MIC) comes from Chinese manufacturing. If that is disrupted we will immediately come into a late-Soviet economic crisis of ‘lots of money with nothing to buy’. Almost all of our bolts, nuts, and industrial hardware comes from China, and there are no stockpiles of this stuff as it is all supply-chain managed to be immediate input-output to reduce costs. Good luck keeping your machines running if you don’t have the hardware to keep up the maintenance.
If we don’t fuck up our relationship with China, this whole thing can go on for decades before eventual ecological collapse, but if the blob actually decides to commit to an active conflict with China our goose will be cooked incredibly quickly, within a decade, because we do not have the labor inputs to replace that Chinese manufacturing power, and it is because there are zero engineers in the upper echelons of the corporate or political spheres (because we specifically enculturate them to be apolitically ambient right-wing) that this is even approaching a real possibility.
The major problem for the U.S. hegemonically is that almost all of our manufacturing input (including the MIC) comes from Chinese manufacturing… Almost all of our bolts, nuts, and industrial hardware comes from China.
I’m discussing this in a parallel chain right now, but this is overstating things a lot. The US makes a lot of industrial equipment domestically, from nuts and bolts to advanced engines. I tour these metal doohickey plants all the time - places pumping out everything from doorknobs and hammers to jet engine casings and extremely high precision valve systems. I live in a city that’s thought of as a former industrial powerhouse, but the reality is it’s still one of the premier manufacturing cities in the country - there’s just far fewer workers involved. Much more light industry than heavy industry has been outsourced. It’s especially overstated for MIC, which does almost all of its manufacturing, top to bottom, domestically. That’s part of the reason for its political invulnerability - there’s fifty factories pumping out parts for aircraft carriers and bombers in your district, Congressman.
Now, the US absolutely is dependent on China’s manufacturing, and that need is most severe in some specific industries and supply chains. If that were cut off today, it would be a disaster economically, but not in our ability to build machines. It would be in our ability to provide clothes, toys, entertainment products, computers, etc - consumer goods. We’d keep pumping out fighter jets and cars and drilling equipment no problem (except for advanced smartboards! oops!). Under smart management (not happening) the US would be mandating onshoring light industry through enormous state investment.
In the industry I work in, which caters to heavy machinery, almost all of our peripheral shit comes from China, they had to scramble when COVID hit to get parts in and were panicking because they lost a significant (5%) of market share due to these shortages, there was no slack that could have been picked up by domestic input. The only reason they didn’t lose more was because the competition fumbled the bag even harder than we did and we managed to buy out parts of their systems to compensate as they went under, but now it’s pretty much a monopoly market.
I’m not saying it’s not possible, I’m saying that that expanding capacity is a long-term project that I am not even sure is possible if the U.S. isn’t willing to invest heavily into the education to do so (which it is not because financial, tech, entertainment and cultural production are easier and more profitable). The U.S. is an industrial powerhouse, but so much of that production relies on those cheap peripherals from China, not even cheap consumer goods, but things like lens, masks, suits, clothes, wrenches, etc. The heavy industry will not survive, and will rapidly monopolize (more than it already has) without those inputs.
However I agree that the real collapse won’t happen until something occurs with the MIC or the 10-11 equity firms that finance pretty much everything in the U.S. This thing is built to last, and grind up everything and everyone around it before it is stopped.
In the industry I work in, which caters to heavy machinery, almost all of our peripheral shit comes from China, they had to scramble when COVID hit to get parts in and were panicking because they lost a significant (5%) of market share due to these shortages, there was no slack that could have been picked up by domestic input. The only reason they didn’t lose more was because the competition fumbled the bag even harder than we did and we managed to buy out parts of their systems to compensate as they went under, but now it’s pretty much a monopoly market.
What industry? I’m curious which ones have that supply chain and which don’t. My city is a major aerospace manufacturing center and almost all levels of production besides final assembly and computer parts happen here.
I’m not saying it’s not possible, I’m saying that that expanding capacity is a long-term project that I am not even sure is possible if the U.S. isn’t willing to invest heavily into the education to do so (which it is not because financial, tech, entertainment and cultural production are easier and more profitable). The U.S. is an industrial powerhouse, but so much of that production relies on those cheap peripherals from China, not even cheap consumer goods, but things like lens, masks, suits, clothes, wrenches, etc. The heavy industry will not survive, and will rapidly monopolize (more than it already has) without those inputs.
It’s a good point that peripheral stuff that isn’t really thought of as in the supply chain is totally dependent on China. Safety gear is a great example. And yeah, like I said, the US isn’t going to get the smart governance to reindustrialize much more of its supply chain even though the capacity exists to do so fairly quickly.
I make no predictions about internal collapse of the US, I just take satisfaction in the empire’s ongoing crumbling.
I work in the automotive industry, though not on tractors, trucks or cars themselves, in general on the necessary (but not essential) accessory components to them. It wouldn’t surprise me if the mainline auto and aerospace industries are mostly domestically sourced at this point, but the main life-blood of manufacturing outside of those large cities runs off of those peripheral inputs from China (because they can’t compete with the large domestic needs of those mainline industries). While places like Detroit, Cleveland, Seattle, Buffalo, Minneapolis, Milwaukee and other industrial hubs would probably be fine in the event of a major war with China, all the mid-size cities (less than 100,000) would see what is left of their industry completely decimated and their labor eaten by the big cities, which would only exacerbate the problems that those cities have, as people who generally chose not to migrate to large cities are suddenly forced to compete in those labor markets in order to retain a job in their field. It may not seem like a big deal, but imagine if every single midsize city suddenly lost the monetary input of their top 15-10% earners. It would be completely devastating to the local economy on all levels. If an unprecedented collapse happens, it will occur in these less managed parts of the country, and those consequences will radiate out towards the population centers at an escalating rate that the statisticians can’t predict because there hasn’t been enough data collected to manage properly.
That said, it really depends on if Washington is actually serious about fucking with China, or are just playing it up for domestic politics points or trying to scare businesses into lessening their supply chain commitment to China so that they can eventually commit to a conflict. People are definitely hearing the warning signs around here, but there is no real way to de-couple from them, as there are very few domestic inputs that are as cost-effective or well-established as the Chinese ones at this point in time. Every year, the supply chain guys try to figure out a solution, but it is trying to square a circle, as any supply we don’t pick up is supply that the competition can pick up and potentially contest for market share. The very logic of capitalist expansion and development prevents them from orienting themselves in a way that protects them from actions of the State Department. All I can say is that the next couple decades will continue to be interesting, whether or not anything actually significant occurs.
Edit: I need to practice being more specific. When I say ‘heavy industry won’t survive’ what I mean is ‘the product diversification of heavy industry won’t survive’. Basically, we will see a completely unrecognizable market landscape the consequences of we can scarcely imagine.
No problem, it is always interesting to hear what is going on in the actual core of the imperial core and not what is fraying around the periphery of the mid-country.
Another thing we don’t really produce or stockpile is the necessary components for our electrical grid. In the last few years there have been several weather events that if they had gone very slightly differently would’ve meant large parts of the country without electricity for months.
When things collapse they collapse slowly, then all at once. The major problem for the U.S. hegemonically is that almost all of our manufacturing input (including the MIC) comes from Chinese manufacturing. If that is disrupted we will immediately come into a late-Soviet economic crisis of ‘lots of money with nothing to buy’. Almost all of our bolts, nuts, and industrial hardware comes from China, and there are no stockpiles of this stuff as it is all supply-chain managed to be immediate input-output to reduce costs. Good luck keeping your machines running if you don’t have the hardware to keep up the maintenance.
If we don’t fuck up our relationship with China, this whole thing can go on for decades before eventual ecological collapse, but if the blob actually decides to commit to an active conflict with China our goose will be cooked incredibly quickly, within a decade, because we do not have the labor inputs to replace that Chinese manufacturing power, and it is because there are zero engineers in the upper echelons of the corporate or political spheres (because we specifically enculturate them to be apolitically ambient right-wing) that this is even approaching a real possibility.
I’m discussing this in a parallel chain right now, but this is overstating things a lot. The US makes a lot of industrial equipment domestically, from nuts and bolts to advanced engines. I tour these metal doohickey plants all the time - places pumping out everything from doorknobs and hammers to jet engine casings and extremely high precision valve systems. I live in a city that’s thought of as a former industrial powerhouse, but the reality is it’s still one of the premier manufacturing cities in the country - there’s just far fewer workers involved. Much more light industry than heavy industry has been outsourced. It’s especially overstated for MIC, which does almost all of its manufacturing, top to bottom, domestically. That’s part of the reason for its political invulnerability - there’s fifty factories pumping out parts for aircraft carriers and bombers in your district, Congressman.
Now, the US absolutely is dependent on China’s manufacturing, and that need is most severe in some specific industries and supply chains. If that were cut off today, it would be a disaster economically, but not in our ability to build machines. It would be in our ability to provide clothes, toys, entertainment products, computers, etc - consumer goods. We’d keep pumping out fighter jets and cars and drilling equipment no problem (except for advanced smartboards! oops!). Under smart management (not happening) the US would be mandating onshoring light industry through enormous state investment.
In the industry I work in, which caters to heavy machinery, almost all of our peripheral shit comes from China, they had to scramble when COVID hit to get parts in and were panicking because they lost a significant (5%) of market share due to these shortages, there was no slack that could have been picked up by domestic input. The only reason they didn’t lose more was because the competition fumbled the bag even harder than we did and we managed to buy out parts of their systems to compensate as they went under, but now it’s pretty much a monopoly market.
I’m not saying it’s not possible, I’m saying that that expanding capacity is a long-term project that I am not even sure is possible if the U.S. isn’t willing to invest heavily into the education to do so (which it is not because financial, tech, entertainment and cultural production are easier and more profitable). The U.S. is an industrial powerhouse, but so much of that production relies on those cheap peripherals from China, not even cheap consumer goods, but things like lens, masks, suits, clothes, wrenches, etc. The heavy industry will not survive, and will rapidly monopolize (more than it already has) without those inputs.
However I agree that the real collapse won’t happen until something occurs with the MIC or the 10-11 equity firms that finance pretty much everything in the U.S. This thing is built to last, and grind up everything and everyone around it before it is stopped.
What industry? I’m curious which ones have that supply chain and which don’t. My city is a major aerospace manufacturing center and almost all levels of production besides final assembly and computer parts happen here.
It’s a good point that peripheral stuff that isn’t really thought of as in the supply chain is totally dependent on China. Safety gear is a great example. And yeah, like I said, the US isn’t going to get the smart governance to reindustrialize much more of its supply chain even though the capacity exists to do so fairly quickly.
I make no predictions about internal collapse of the US, I just take satisfaction in the empire’s ongoing crumbling.
I work in the automotive industry, though not on tractors, trucks or cars themselves, in general on the necessary (but not essential) accessory components to them. It wouldn’t surprise me if the mainline auto and aerospace industries are mostly domestically sourced at this point, but the main life-blood of manufacturing outside of those large cities runs off of those peripheral inputs from China (because they can’t compete with the large domestic needs of those mainline industries). While places like Detroit, Cleveland, Seattle, Buffalo, Minneapolis, Milwaukee and other industrial hubs would probably be fine in the event of a major war with China, all the mid-size cities (less than 100,000) would see what is left of their industry completely decimated and their labor eaten by the big cities, which would only exacerbate the problems that those cities have, as people who generally chose not to migrate to large cities are suddenly forced to compete in those labor markets in order to retain a job in their field. It may not seem like a big deal, but imagine if every single midsize city suddenly lost the monetary input of their top 15-10% earners. It would be completely devastating to the local economy on all levels. If an unprecedented collapse happens, it will occur in these less managed parts of the country, and those consequences will radiate out towards the population centers at an escalating rate that the statisticians can’t predict because there hasn’t been enough data collected to manage properly.
That said, it really depends on if Washington is actually serious about fucking with China, or are just playing it up for domestic politics points or trying to scare businesses into lessening their supply chain commitment to China so that they can eventually commit to a conflict. People are definitely hearing the warning signs around here, but there is no real way to de-couple from them, as there are very few domestic inputs that are as cost-effective or well-established as the Chinese ones at this point in time. Every year, the supply chain guys try to figure out a solution, but it is trying to square a circle, as any supply we don’t pick up is supply that the competition can pick up and potentially contest for market share. The very logic of capitalist expansion and development prevents them from orienting themselves in a way that protects them from actions of the State Department. All I can say is that the next couple decades will continue to be interesting, whether or not anything actually significant occurs.
Edit: I need to practice being more specific. When I say ‘heavy industry won’t survive’ what I mean is ‘the product diversification of heavy industry won’t survive’. Basically, we will see a completely unrecognizable market landscape the consequences of we can scarcely imagine.
Good analysis, I appreciate it
No problem, it is always interesting to hear what is going on in the actual core of the imperial core and not what is fraying around the periphery of the mid-country.
treadonme gets it
Another thing we don’t really produce or stockpile is the necessary components for our electrical grid. In the last few years there have been several weather events that if they had gone very slightly differently would’ve meant large parts of the country without electricity for months.