• ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆OP
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    2 years ago

    first off, if you build one generation that’s all you really need. metal is not like plastic or oil, you can always just melt it down and forge it again and again.

    Sure, but bootstrapping that first generation is clearly a hard problem, and as things stand right now there aren’t enough resources to do that.

    It almost exists, I mean if you had a stupid amount of money you could right now hire space on a shuttle to move a tone of rocket fuel into orbit, with engines, robots and some parachutes send them out to an asteroid attached and just drop it into your backyard.

    Except that these kinds of things take a long time to go to market in practice. Just look at SpaceX as an example. It’s going to take at least a decade before there are even attempts at mining asteroids. Meanwhile, we’re talking about needing to mine over 4 billion tons of copper alone. Do you realize the sheer scale of this?

    We are talking 12 digits numbers in cost but if you grab say Hebe it has 1.39 x 10^12 tonnes of copper,

    And how are you going to bring this down to Earth exactly? You can’t just ram an asteroid into the planet. You’d have to take it apart somehow, and then send small payloads down from orbit, and that means a shitload of logistics, fuel, and infrastructure.

    Also I am not totally convinced of this number and want to find a better source to verify it. A lot of that article sounded like someone finding all the worst cases and adding them together.

    The article sounded like a pretty sober assessment to me, and it linked to the actual study that explains where these numbers come from. Just because you don’t like what the numbers say is not a reason to discard the study.