China and Japan have stepped up engagement in recent months, but analysts say the trajectory of relations will largely come down to Tokyo’s political situation and its ties with the incoming Donald Trump administration.

Last week, when Takeshi Iwaya made his first visit to China as Japanese foreign minister, the two sides agreed to increase exchanges, to make it easier for Chinese to visit Japan, and to restart dialogue on security and diplomacy as well as talks on Japanese beef and milled rice imports.

It followed a meeting between Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Apec summit in Peru last month, when they agreed to work on “constructive and stable” ties, and talks between Ishiba and Chinese Premier Li Qiang at the Asean summit in Laos in October.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi is also said to be planning a Japan trip in February for an economic dialogue last held in 2019 and could extend an invitation for Ishiba to visit China, Japanese news agency Kyodo reported, citing diplomatic sources.

Ishiba told Japanese media over the weekend that frequent engagement was needed to build trust between the two nations.

While security remains a stumbling block, analysts say Tokyo’s recent engagement with Beijing is a response to uncertainty over Washington’s commitment to allies and the potential harm to Japanese interests when Trump returns to the White House next month.

“Ishiba will maintain some level of outreach to Beijing as a hedge against otherwise one-sided, burdensome demands from Washington,” said Walter Hatch, a professor of government at Colby College in Maine and an Asian politics expert.

Japan has depended on the US for security under a defence pact established after World War II – a commitment Trump questioned during his first term, when he called for Tokyo to pay more for US troops stationed on Japanese soil. Trump is expected to again apply pressure on that front and has also threatened to impose higher tariffs on imports from China and other countries.

“With ‘America first’ Trumpism on the rise in Washington, both Tokyo and Beijing have a strong interest in building better ties to protect against unilateralism,” Hatch said.

Meanwhile Ishiba wants to “rebalance Japan’s relations with the world’s two superpowers, asserting a bit more autonomy in the otherwise highly subordinate alliance with the US”.

“With Trump about to take office, Ishiba wants to signal that Tokyo will not be bullied into deals with Washington that would undermine Japanese interests,” Hatch said.

“He wants the president-elect to know that Japan has other options.”

But it will involve mending fences with Beijing. Relations between the Asian neighbours have been strained in recent years over Japan’s wartime aggression, their territorial disputes in the East China Sea, and the issue of Taiwan.

At the same time, Japan has moved closer to the US amid the escalating rivalry between Beijing and Washington and concerns over China’s growing military might – and its activities close to Japan.

According to Zhang Yilun, a research associate at the Washington-based Institute for China-America Studies (ICAS), Beijing has an opportunity to improve relations with both Tokyo and Seoul.

Japan, South Korea and the United States held a summit at Camp David last year to counter China.

Zhang said that with Ishiba now in power in Japan, Joe Biden leaving office in less than a month and the impeachment of South Korean leader Yoon Suk-yeol, the consensus struck at Camp David could be in question under the new Trump administration.

“For China, this will be a particularly good time to repair relations with Japan so that another Camp David trilateral summit will not happen in the same form soon,” he said.

Zhang Yun, an associate professor of international relations at Niigata University in Japan, said Ishiba had pushed for a more equitable relationship with the US, and more autonomous ties with China.

“Sino-Japanese relations often show initial signs of improvement but it’s a struggle to maintain momentum,” he said, adding that Iwaya’s visit to China was a positive development but it remained to be seen whether the two sides could grasp the momentum.

Zhang from ICAS agreed. “It is too soon to say that these outcomes [from last week’s talks] will produce concrete results that fundamentally repair bilateral relations,” he said.

“But these bilateral mechanisms will certainly build mutual trust through constant and candid exchanges, and will deliver more tangible outcomes as they are … focused on specific issues.”

In Japan, Ishiba’s political base is unstable. He heads a minority government after his Liberal Democratic Party and its junior coalition partner the Komeito lost their majority in the lower house of parliament.

Ishiba is walking a political tightrope ahead of the upper house election in July – another electoral defeat would bring calls for accountability, and it could force him to resign as prime minister.

According to Zhang from Niigata University, another challenge to any thaw in ties with China was likely to come from Trump.

“If Trump opts to comprehensively pressure and contain China, he is likely to require Tokyo to obediently follow suit,” he said. “In that scenario, it’s uncertain whether Ishiba would be able to resist US pressure and continue to pursue a more autonomous approach towards dealing with China.”

Lian Degui, director of the Centre for Japanese Studies at Shanghai International Studies University, said Ishiba was determined to boost engagement with China, and that push would continue.

“If Ishiba did not have such a strong desire, he could have waited for Trump to take office to see how the US reacted before making any moves to improve Sino-Japanese relations at this time,” he said.

His approach to Taiwan has also been different from that of his predecessors, observers say. Ishiba visited the self-ruled island in August before he became prime minister but has refrained from the explicit support shown by other Japanese leaders. He also said the Taiwan situation was “more complex” than when Japan and China normalised relations in 1972.

Hatch said Ishiba’s position on Taiwan was more nuanced and less slavishly pro-US than previous governments under Fumio Kishida and the late Shinzo Abe.

Beijing views Taiwan as part of China to be united, by force if necessary. Japan, like most other countries including the US, does not recognise the island as independent. Washington opposes any attempt to take Taiwan by force and is legally bound to supply weapons to the island. Tokyo has also intensified engagement with the island in recent years, stoking tensions with Beijing.

Zhang from ICAS said given that the US commitment to Taiwan was not clear under Trump 2.0, “it is wise not to attract too much attention to the issue of Taiwan since it will be Japan, not the US, who will be at the forefront in a potential Taiwan contingency”.