Problem is Russia can continue this war for several years. The long term collapse of the Russian federation is a given, but what that looks like isn’t clear, and in any case has no bearing on their ability to fight war now.
Russian losses are above their recruitment numbers for some time now and they are already paying a lot for it and have worker shortages. A draft would mean another wave of migrants. That is not to mention the state the Russian economy is in.
That is a problem for next month though, the situation on the ground is they have plenty more to kill for a month with no recruitment - perhaps several months at current rates.
You misunderstand the situation IMO. The Russian federation collapse is because they can’t keep enduring the war. Their economy is collapsing, and when reality dawns on the Russians, Respect for Putin will vanish. And with it, the respect for the Russian federation. And that’s what will make the federation collapse.
Many estimate that Russia will only be able to endure until summer maybe a year. This is for different reasons, but IMO the economic downturn or collapse is what will end the ability for Russia to fight on.
The Russian population is only now beginning to feel the consequences of the war, because Putin has flooded the country with money, but the economy cannot satisfy demand, and now steep inflation eats the gains people have received. It’s like a law of physics, you repair a broken economy by pouring money into it, it will only increase inflation, and make it worse.
Don’t you mean underestimate? Maybe, I can’t say I’m familiar with how Russians states feel regarding their “Russian Nationality”. But we know for a fact that the populations of many regions wanted out of the Soviet Union. Like Kazakhstan, Belarus, Ukraine, Georgia and more.
The Russian federation is becoming very unattractive, with an economy in ruins, and a military that cannot ensure safety for the outer regions.
The Russian federation consist of several people, that could quickly develop a desire for independence, like happened when the Soviet Union collapsed.
Edit: Oh sorry, I thought you meant it as nationality, but apparently you mean it as merely people, why not just write that then?
A bit confusing that you use a Russian term.
No I’m not underestimating the Russian people, they rebelled against communism as soon as a windows of opportunity showed itself.
And as stated above, many left the union too, when that opportunity arose.
The same will happen again, because Russia is still a fractured nation.
@Buffalox very unfortunately they will obey. Everything. There is no opposition. ‘My house is at the end of the village’ (#fuckrussia proverb). There is no momentum. There is only desolation. But, like the last 100 years, they will endure and listen to their ‘fuhrer’. #glassthekremlin
I edited my previous response, there is no reason to believe Russians won’t grab the opportunity when they learn the truth and it arises.
Both things will happen. Because with an economy that doesn’t work, where the government can’t pay, you can’t police properly either.
Problem is Russia can continue this war for several years. The long term collapse of the Russian federation is a given, but what that looks like isn’t clear, and in any case has no bearing on their ability to fight war now.
Russian losses are above their recruitment numbers for some time now and they are already paying a lot for it and have worker shortages. A draft would mean another wave of migrants. That is not to mention the state the Russian economy is in.
That is a problem for next month though, the situation on the ground is they have plenty more to kill for a month with no recruitment - perhaps several months at current rates.
You misunderstand the situation IMO. The Russian federation collapse is because they can’t keep enduring the war. Their economy is collapsing, and when reality dawns on the Russians, Respect for Putin will vanish. And with it, the respect for the Russian federation. And that’s what will make the federation collapse.
Many estimate that Russia will only be able to endure until summer maybe a year. This is for different reasons, but IMO the economic downturn or collapse is what will end the ability for Russia to fight on.
The Russian population is only now beginning to feel the consequences of the war, because Putin has flooded the country with money, but the economy cannot satisfy demand, and now steep inflation eats the gains people have received. It’s like a law of physics, you repair a broken economy by pouring money into it, it will only increase inflation, and make it worse.
@Buffalox @bluGill hmhhh… You overestimate imo the narod. It will endure everything.
Don’t you mean underestimate? Maybe, I can’t say I’m familiar with how Russians states feel regarding their “Russian Nationality”. But we know for a fact that the populations of many regions wanted out of the Soviet Union. Like Kazakhstan, Belarus, Ukraine, Georgia and more.
The Russian federation is becoming very unattractive, with an economy in ruins, and a military that cannot ensure safety for the outer regions.
The Russian federation consist of several people, that could quickly develop a desire for independence, like happened when the Soviet Union collapsed.
Edit: Oh sorry, I thought you meant it as nationality, but apparently you mean it as merely people, why not just write that then?
A bit confusing that you use a Russian term.
No I’m not underestimating the Russian people, they rebelled against communism as soon as a windows of opportunity showed itself.
And as stated above, many left the union too, when that opportunity arose.
The same will happen again, because Russia is still a fractured nation.
@Buffalox very unfortunately they will obey. Everything. There is no opposition. ‘My house is at the end of the village’ (#fuckrussia proverb). There is no momentum. There is only desolation. But, like the last 100 years, they will endure and listen to their ‘fuhrer’. #glassthekremlin
I edited my previous response, there is no reason to believe Russians won’t grab the opportunity when they learn the truth and it arises.
Both things will happen. Because with an economy that doesn’t work, where the government can’t pay, you can’t police properly either.