Well the good news is that if they wait long enough they won’t need to phase it out, they simply won’t have a need for it.
So, this is something of a tough one for more than a few reasons. First is that gas heating can actually be more efficient than resistive electric heating depending on the power source. Generating electricity is between 30 and 60% efficient if we’re being generous. Modern gas furnaces can be upt to 99% efficient at extracting heat energy. So of your using gas to generate electricity to heat homes your actually better off just burning the gas for heat. Heat pumps can adjust this equation during moderate temps, being more than 100% efficient at moving heat, but during cold snaps we will still ned auxiliary heat.
Second is that the electric grid currently isn’t anywhere near capable of moving enough energy to take over for gas heating. We would need to roughly triple the electric grid capacity to be able to take up the current winter heating demand.
Personally I think district heating (and cooling) is the best way forward.
In rebuttal, gas heating is still releasing carbon into the atmosphere, and we really can’t afford to do much more of that. Also, Manitoba’s electricity is 98% or higher renewable, so even electric resistive assisting heat pumps for the month or so a year you’d need it wouldn’t mean more carbon is being released into the atmosphere. So the big problems are, people already have natural gas heating (like me) and can’t afford to put in heat pumps to solve that problem. And it will cost more, but only because we externalize the cost of the climate damage.
Also building differently. Mixed use buildings and wall to wall buildings are more effecient to heat because they have less surface area exposed to the outdoors and often house multiple families per building. This type of building can be very difficult to build now but was the norm 100 years ago.
First is that gas heating can actually be more efficient than resistive electric heating depending on the power source.
Manitoba’s electricity is almost exclusively Hydro.
So of your using gas to generate electricity to heat homes your actually better off just burning the gas for heat.
If you don’t account for the environmental impact of the roughly 2% which is lost in transit.
Heat pumps can adjust this equation during moderate temps, being more than 100% efficient at moving heat, but during cold snaps we will still ned auxiliary heat.
That only applies to air-source heat pumps, and even then, they’re constantly improving.
We would need to roughly triple the electric grid capacity to be able to take up the current winter heating demand.
Source? Also, as the population and the economy grows, energy sources are going to need to grow either way, so it might as well be electricity.
The expense for ground source heat pumps, especially in the city, would be ridiculous.
Heat pumps are great, but under -15C, they’re really, really inefficient. And Winnipeg is very often much colder than that.
Heat pumps are great, but under -15C, they’re really, really inefficient.
I think you’re working off old data, or you’re misunderstanding the article where they say air-source heat pumps start to lose efficiency at ~15°C. My unit, installed just over a year ago is rated for a COP of at least 1.72 at 0°F (-17.78°C) when the inside temperature is 80°F (26.67°C). And as I said, newer units are getting better and better.
I have a newer 23 SEER pump now, and it’s pretty terrible at that temperature. The draw is approaching resistive at -20 and beyond that, well, don’t even bother. If I compare costs to running my backup furnace past -15 vs the electricity costs to force it to work at that temperature, I turn off the heat pump.
Yes, for about 90% of the work these pumps do, they are efficient and cost effective, as well as cooling in the summer. But this blue-sky thinking that they can replace NG heating in places like the Canadian Prairies is a pipe dream at this time.
