Jill Stein hurts Donald Trump more than Kamala Harris, poll suggests
www.newsweek.com
A recent poll shows Jill Stein's appearance on the ballot might be hurting Republicans more than Democrats, a reversal from 2016.
  • jordanlund@lemmy.worldM
    5·
    1 month ago

    It depends on how you define “hurts more”.

    Looking at the polling for PA, but SPECIFICALLY polls done by the same agency, both with Stein and without Stein:

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/

    Oct. 7-10 857LV
    The New York Times/Siena College
    Harris - 49%
    Trump - 45%
    Stein - 1%
    Oliver - 0%

    Oct. 7-10 857LV
    The New York Times/Siena College
    Harris - 50%
    Trump - 47%

    In terms of raw numbers, yes, with Stein in the race Harris loses 1 point while Trump loses 2, so you’d THINK that means it hurts Trump more.

    But there’s no logistical difference between 47% and 45%.

    In elections where the winner is 50%+1, dropping from 50 to 49 is a HUGE difference.

    • Baron Von J@lemmy.world
      31·
      1 month ago

      In elections where the winner is 50%+1,

      US popular vote elections aren’t 50%+1, though. Whoever has the most votes wins, regardless of percentage.

    • RenfieldEnglish
      2·
      1 month ago

      came here looking for mental gymnastics

      this is the stuff!