For the first time since 538 published our presidential election forecast for Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, Trump has taken the lead (if a very small one) over Harris. As of 3 p.m. Eastern on Oct. 18, our model gives Trump a 52-in-100 chance of winning the majority of Electoral College votes. The model gives Harris a 48-in-100 chance.
Lol at people downvoting what they don’t want to hear.
On a positive note, Harris is still leading 4/7 swing states in the WaPo averages: https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/interactive/2024/presidential-polling-averages/
Down outing because anyone watching polls has seen floods of bullshit polls flood the arena in the past few weeks. They’re totally made up and inaccurate, and in cahoots with the Trump campaign to try and give credence to another attempt and overthrowing the government by crying about the election results.
I’ve seen the reports. I highly doubt any of the arm chair statisticians (who have never taken a day of mathematical or proof-level stats) have a clue what they are talking about. The polls’ histories and lean are factored into 538’s averages. They are not new to this.
And how many polls are left leaning? The graph posted a couple of days ago on midwest claims 35% are right leaning, and a correlation with the drop in support for Harris. What it doesn’t say is the proportion of democratic polls, and there really isn’t a correlation over the length of history shown.
Hard to make informed decisions when half the information is hidden. (But arm chair statisticians don’t recognize the issue do they?)
Left or right leaning isn’t the problem. Deliberately skewing the averages is. I don’t care for Nate Silver, but in his own words: https://www.natesilver.net/p/are-republican-pollsters-flooding
A .5% shift in bullshit data explains all of this right here. Polling is useless anymore anyway, but when you are in Trump’s little circus of assclowns who want to form a pretext of something like a stolen election, it sure as fuck serves a purpose.
Edit: and then you have shit like this: https://www.rawstory.com/donald-trump-2669441230/ https://www.reuters.com/world/us/large-bets-election-prediction-market-are-overseas-source-says-2024-10-18/
Not suspicious or coordinated at all.
I’ll give you your references. Will have to read later.
All polls are useless:
https://www.damemagazine.com/2024/05/14/presidential-polls
This article is pure silliness but extrapolating from it.to say all polls are useless is to miss even the point of the article!
Yes, national polls aren’t particularly helpful because of the electoral college. Which means state level polling is what matters. And polls 6 months out, are not helpful. This is why no polling aggregator is still including them.
Meanwhile, in reality, the polling aggregators pretty much called every 2022 midterm race. In 2020, 538 “correctly identified the winners of the presidency (Joe Biden), the U.S. Senate (Democrats, after the Georgia runoffs) and the U.S. House (Democrats, although by a narrower-than-expected margin). They were also largely accurate in identifying the winners in individual states and races, identifying the outcome correctly in 48 of 50 presidential states (we also missed the 2nd Congressional District in Maine), 32 of 35 Senate races1 and 417 of 435 House races.”
Meanwhile, factually and statistically, out of all the presidential polls ever conducted, they’re only 60% correct.
All polls are useless.
You are fundamentally misunderstanding the difference between polling aggregators, like 538 and a poll.
Though, if you really believe what you’re saying, how crazy lucky do you think, 538 must have been to get 32/35 senate races right, 417/435 house races and the presidential rave. Seeing as they repeated the performance in 2022, those lucky jerks should be going to Vegas, not working! /s
Yeah, it’s kind of amazing.
If there’s a good poll for Kamala, it’s upvotes to the moon. If it’s a good one from trump, voted to the underworld.
That sort of hive mind, shut out anything I dislike attitude is the same attitude that makes half the country ignore any and all criticism of trump.
I think you’ll find the same number of people saying that polls are meaningless and to just vote in any of these “poll says” threads.
Absolutely but polls one way get huge upvotes and polls the other get huge downvotes.