One group of American voters is being largely ignored in the closely watched polling leading up to the Nov. 5 elections: U.S. citizens living abroad, whether as civilians or as members of the military. We know from governmental data that the number of ballots cast by overseas Americans has been greater than the margin of victory in races in the past—and may be again in 2024.
I don’t know how much I’d rely on Americans abroad as a voting bloc, though. From my own experience as one such person, you’re just as likely to have people who want positive outcomes in the US as negative ones.
A lot of expats might maintain ties to the US and still care about American issues, but I know a heck of a lot of them don’t care at all. A lot of Americans left the US because they hate it there and might even prefer it if the election makes things worse. Not that such people would be likely to vote anyways, but you’re not going to find consistent voting trends from people living abroad, even if as a sum they are greater than the margin of error of some elections.
Overseas voters abroad generally lean heavily democratic by around a D+60 margin
Almost as if travel and new experiences can tend to broaden one’s mind…