I generally agree, while there is a lot of hype around AI, there is real progress being made as well. The way I see it there are three different paths towards AGI. The first is trying to figure out the algorithms similar kind of problem solving that our brains are doing. This is the approach that’s getting the most attention currently. Another approach is bio-inspired neural nets, where we study how biological systems evolved, and try to copy that. Finally, there’s the evolutionary approach where we could set up a virtual environment, and have the agents evolve within it. We can also use combinations of these techniques in complementary ways.

I’m convinced that we will stumble on what’s involved in building human style intelligence sooner or later, but it’s hard to say how far away we are at the moment. I do think that this will happen within a century tops though, and even that is a blink of an eye in the grand scheme of things.