spaduf@slrpnk.net to Microblog Memes@lemmy.worldEnglish · 4 months agoMeta Hires Project 2025 Co-Authorslrpnk.netimagemessage-square53fedilinkarrow-up1711arrow-down112 cross-posted to: whitepeopletwitter@sh.itjust.works
arrow-up1699arrow-down1imageMeta Hires Project 2025 Co-Authorslrpnk.netspaduf@slrpnk.net to Microblog Memes@lemmy.worldEnglish · 4 months agomessage-square53fedilink cross-posted to: whitepeopletwitter@sh.itjust.works
minus-squaremosiacmango@lemm.eelinkfedilinkEnglisharrow-up4·edit-24 months agoInteresting. Good to see data enter the conversation finally. It looks like on average, betting markets are about as good as Nate silver. They also appear to have issues with legality in the US, which limits their effectiveness as a market, and they tend to be very “vibes” based in the short term.
minus-squareArbitraryValue@sh.itjust.workslinkfedilinkEnglisharrow-up2arrow-down1·4 months agoI think that’s a good assessment of the current state of affairs.
Interesting. Good to see data enter the conversation finally. It looks like on average, betting markets are about as good as Nate silver.
They also appear to have issues with legality in the US, which limits their effectiveness as a market, and they tend to be very “vibes” based in the short term.
I think that’s a good assessment of the current state of affairs.