Reminder that you guys should go out and vote. Trump has been ahead since September 2023. Don’t let the echo chamber make you feel like it’s a done deal. That’s what I thought until I saw this article.
Reminder that you guys should go out and vote. Trump has been ahead since September 2023. Don’t let the echo chamber make you feel like it’s a done deal. That’s what I thought until I saw this article.
People bet on elections.
And it’s pretty interesting data when it comes to elections as it’s pretty much a live opinion poll if you track the odds over time—as most modern betting companies will adjust the odds automatically based on how people are betting
Eh, it’s often wildly out of touch with reality. It’d be an opinion poll if people were objectively betting solely to try to earn the maximum payout, but it goes off the rail all the time with wishful thinking and intentional manipulation.
Doesn’t the bookie need to have a decent approximation of the actual odds to avoid paying out more than they take in? Or are the margins just so big that it doesn’t matter?
The bookie balances the odds according to how much money is coming in on each side. The bookie’s goal is to make money on the vig no matter what the outcome is.
Economists think these betting markets are better at predicting results than regular opinion polls because people have to risk their real money to participate.
…ignoring the fact that many people who bet regularly are actually just addicted to it