• kn0wmad1c@programming.dev
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    15
    arrow-down
    2
    ·
    edit-2
    6 个月前

    You could make points without calling the other person naive. No need to make the internet a worse place.

    As far as “every available metric” goes, you’re talking polls, and polls are garbage. Every poll had Clinton winning in late October 2016.

    And we’re in an unprecedented portion of politics in American history, so bringing up historical measurements doesn’t convince me like you think it would.

    • Riccosuave@lemmy.world
      link
      fedilink
      arrow-up
      4
      arrow-down
      10
      ·
      edit-2
      6 个月前

      We will see who did the proper analysis in 4 months time. I’m really hoping it won’t be me. Unfortunately, I am also certain that I am correct.

      • kn0wmad1c@programming.dev
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        8
        ·
        6 个月前

        I’m not certain at all, which scares me all the same. Tho the last ten years still hasn’t beaten the hope out of me, so I’ve got that much going.

        • Riccosuave@lemmy.world
          link
          fedilink
          arrow-up
          3
          arrow-down
          5
          ·
          edit-2
          6 个月前

          I don’t want to kill your hope. I don’t share it, but maybe you can muster enough for both of us.

        • LustyArgonian@lemmy.world
          link
          fedilink
          English
          arrow-up
          1
          ·
          6 个月前

          Lol exactly, no one knows the future. That’s the problem with inductive reasoning and the philosophical idea of the absurd.

          • TrickDacy@lemmy.world
            link
            fedilink
            arrow-up
            2
            arrow-down
            1
            ·
            6 个月前

            Yes, I guess we will find out if you’re the world’s only legitimate soothsayer with an outcome you’ve predicted that has 50/50 odds of coming true.

            • Riccosuave@lemmy.world
              link
              fedilink
              arrow-up
              1
              arrow-down
              2
              ·
              6 个月前

              That’s not how odds work. The fact there are only two outcomes does not mean the odds of each of those outcomes occurring is the same…

              • TrickDacy@lemmy.world
                link
                fedilink
                arrow-up
                1
                arrow-down
                1
                ·
                6 个月前

                Yes, the braindead thing you’re saying you can predict the future. As a remotely reasonable person, I dispute this laughable idea.