Edit: Here’s the exact same clip on the standard YouTube Watch page.
courtesy of zagorath
Brandon Sanderson the fantasy author
For those uninterested in watching a youtube short (sorry), the theory is pretty simple:
COVID and the death of theatres broke the film industry’s controlled, simple and effective marketing pipeline (watch movie in theatres -> watch trailer before hand -> watch that tailer’s movie in theatres …) and so now films have the same problems books have always had which is that of finding a way to break through in a saturated market, grab people’s attention and find an audience. Not being experienced with this, the film industry is floundering.
In just this clip he doesn’t mention streaming and TV (perhaps he does in the full podcast), but that basically contributes to the same dynamic of saturation and noise.
Do note that Sanderson openly admits its a mostly unfounded theory.
For me personally, I’m not sure how effective the theatrical trailers have been in governing my movie watching choices for a long time. Certainly there was a time that they did. But since trailers went online (anyone remember Apple Trailers!?) it’s been through YouTube and online spaces like this.
Perhaps that’s relatively uncommon? Or perhaps COVID was just the straw that broke the camel’s back? Or maybe there’s a generational factor where now, compared to 10 years ago, the post X-Gen and “more online” demographic is relatively decisive of TV/Film sales?
I definitely think the cycle has been broken. I’m less likely to see a movie in theatres (expensive) and so I don’t see trailers on the big screen. Watching a trailer at home makes me question: Is this worth going to see on a big screen, or can I enjoy it on my TV all the same? And if I decide thatI can wait until I can get it at home I forget all about the movie until it appears on streaming or a am reminded of it and seek it out on the high seas. I think covid broke the camels back, as you mentioned. Our generation has been more decisive about movies/tv because their are so many options. With so many great things vying for my attention, I appreciate the ability to just turn something off if it doesn’t suit my taste.
Which is sanderson’s point I think. This is what books have been like for a long time. Film industry probably just needs to adapt.