- cross-posted to:
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- cross-posted to:
- nyt_gift_articles@sopuli.xyz
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lol. Okay, “young people.” If you don’t vote for Biden, you get Trump. And it won’t be the “burn it down and rebuild it” you think it will. It will be right-wing totalitarianism for the next hundred years.
I don’t like it any more than you do. But sometimes our choices are limited.
Well, in his defense, the burn it down part is true.
In all seriousness, he’s already caused damage that far outlasted his term. The Supreme Court, District court, and Appeals court appointments will affect them for decades. His environmental and industrial regulations repeals will take over a decade to reenact. His tax reform exploitatively widened the already oppressive wealth inequality. We may not fully recover from a second term in their lifetime.
Proof in point: We’re still suffering from the lingerings of Reaganomics. Both Bushs caused their own shifts against a progressive society, often by throwing out things built up by the previous administration to improve things. Trump did a lot of things too, but the ironic one is where he dismantled the very things that GWB helped create to fight worldwide pandemics (credit to George there for reading a book, asking his advisors how true it was, and doing something).
If we get Trump, I’m fairly certain we won’t have another real national election again. It’ll be like Russia with massive “voter fraud” bills and EOs passed that completely neuter the ability to vote. The treasonous Project 2025 would gut the government and we’ll probably get that Schedule F bullshit that brings back the spoils system.
So while Biden is wonderful (he’s done a bunch of good stuff recently at least), Trump is so far down the fascist ladder there really isn’t any choice. I’m not excited to vote for Biden, I’m terrified of Trump being elected.
If you don’t vote for Biden, you get Trump.
Thanks to our Constitution you get Trump even if you do vote for Biden.
Elaborate
I think they’re talking about popular vote vs electoral college.
In that case yes, fuck the electoral college.
He had his chance to effect massive change, and he made everything he touched worse. His plan for healthcare was just “undo Obamacare” because everything was perfect before. I’m very glad he didn’t get a chance to touch that.
Burn everything down and rebuild is clearly not the panacea some folks wish. I get it, though. In 2016, most of the pro-Trump voters I knew self-identified as anarchists.
We have to fix this shit without burning it down. Too many people rely on things as they are (for good and ill) to enact dramatic change overnight.
Yes I know right?
Marriage equality? Who needs it.
Giving unions the biggest win/shot in the arm they’ve had in the last 50 to 75 years? Poppycock!
Eliminating non compete agreements for most Americans? For fucks sake we don’t like competing!
BIG / S ENERGY
I’ll be real. There was only one candidate in the 2020 Democratic primary that I disliked more than biden. And that was culty gabbard. I voted for Bernie Sanders in the last two presidential primaries. Biden is so far from perfect or what we really need. But has still been astonishingly good on so many things. Granted in our current state that’s a low bar. But I honestly struggle to think what Sanders could have done in a meaningful sense that Biden has not. I’m sure Sanders would have spoken out against the violence in Palestine sooner. It would still be happening exactly as it is now. But he would have spoken out sooner. So that is a plus.
But it really boggles the mind to try to comprehend how people can still be this uninformed. To think everything he touches turns to shit. No it just goes to prove the old adage. The left doesn’t need enemies with allies like the left.
Biden tried to do more than he accomplished, but got shot down by right-wing courts and the two ‘moderates’ in Manchin and Sinema. You think Sanders could have done better, given what Biden faced?
Nope. I literally said I couldn’t see Sanders doing much better really. I agree with everything you did.
they don’t think that far ahead. they thing not voting is a protest and makes them non-complicit in the ‘system’.
just like all the dweebs who go on and on about how they are anti-capitalist in one tab while shopping on amazon in the other.
I don’t think humanity under capitalism has another 100 years of effective life left, tbh
So uh… good news?
Well, I don’t believe for a second that Biden and Trump and tied with Gen Z. Right now, it’s “free” to claim that you won’t vote for Biden or won’t vote at all. At the end of the day, Gen Z and most young people will come out and vote for the one closer to their world view. Angry or not.
Ok grampa, it just so happens that condescendingly blaming young voters for Biden’s piss poor policies while in office won’t be the get out the vote motivating factor you seem to think it will. If Biden wants votes, he needs to appeal to voters, not just donors.
Removed by mod
Removed, civility.
Now do theirs. Ageism is not civil.
Theirs wasn’t reported so we didn’t see it.
Glad to see we take context into consideration when removing content.
Calling another user an asshole doesn’t require additional context. ;)
It’s definitely worrying as I sit here North of my American brothers and sisters, to see the sheer amount of “Yeah but Biden sucks”. Sure 100% agree, but you’re welcoming in Orange Hitler if you don’t vote, or vote Republican.
So definitely worrying sleeping beside this particular elephant.
The elephant will do damage to the whole fuckin world if he gets elected, including but not limited to wielding the military in a way that I bet will cause disasters we didn’t even really have on the radar as possibilities before they arrived.
So don’t worry. Being close up to the carnage probably won’t make it any worse, and being far away wouldn’t make it any safer.
I dislike doubting polls, but there’s just some odd stuff in here.
- 10% go for RFK Jr, and it’s equal siphoning from both parties? 10%?!
- 20% more people blame Biden for Roe being overturned than Trump?
- They’re TIED with Gen Z voters? TIED?!
- After the absolute thrashing that Republicans have received on abortion, only like 50% of women would break for Biden?
This is a poll of just the 5 key states, but this part of their methodology gives me significant pause as well: "To further ensure that the results reflect the entire voting population, not just those willing to take a poll, we give more weight to respondents from demographic groups underrepresented among survey respondents, like people without a college degree. "
Emphasis mine. There could be a huge skew. And these results don’t make sense. The other NYT poll from several months ago was also incredibly unusual and had very weird findings – to the point that the Guardian wrote something was very fucky with the results.
This isn’t to say this can’t be what’s going on, but we need corroboration from other polling groups. And it isn’t summer yet, which makes polls rather inaccurate too.
TLDR: Something’s fucky, we need more information and to monitor this.
EDIT: I just want to use my bully pulpit here to say that my criticisms by no means disprove the poll results. There’s oddities, but that doesn’t make the results an impossibility. Don’t only give credence to criticism of polls. If someone has reasons they believe the poll is accurate, you should give equal attention to it. At the end of the day, we don’t know what the actual truth is, and we won’t until the election is over. Just remember that we don’t want to just win, we want to dominate. We want massive margins. And that means we need to see wins even in less than accurate polls.
we give more weight to respondents from demographic groups underrepresented among survey respondents, like people without a college degree
Oooooohhh
All of sudden it makes sense
Here’s their methodology page, with in addition to that fuckin fascinating tidbit you quoted, some other things of note:
- The New York Times/Siena College Poll is conducted by phone using live interviewers at call centers based in Florida, New York, South Carolina, Texas and Virginia. Respondents are randomly selected from a national list of registered voters, and we call voters both on landlines and cellphones.
- In the end, fewer than 2 percent of the people our callers try to reach will respond. We try to keep our calls short — less than 15 minutes — because the longer the interview, the fewer people stay on the phone.
- We call more people who seem unlikely to respond, like those who don’t vote in every election.
- But the truth is that there’s no way to be absolutely sure that the people who respond to surveys are like demographically similar voters who don’t respond. It’s always possible that there’s some hidden variable, some extra dimension of nonresponse that we haven’t considered.
It is, indeed, always possible.
To be clear, polling theory is totally valid and an established science within statistics.
But the challenge is always with methodology, because you can never get a perfect simple random sample. And the methodology here certainly seems terrible.
Something fucky is going on. From the page:
If the 2024 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were
Then it lists the usual suspects including third parties. The only age group for that question voting for Biden is 65 and older. Maybe so, but that doesn’t seem right.
I suspect that out of the 2% of people who answered the phone (and the smaller percentage that stayed on for the whole poll), there were some number of young people whose parents answered the phone and then answered all the poll questions for them, or something weird like that.
Maybe not. But in general, the whole methodology starts to look like a big pile of garbage the closer you look at it. It’s not surprising for some answers to come out of it that are very obviously wrong.
If you’ve been following the polling there is nothing different or unique about this one. It’s consistent with pretty much all polling over the past 400 days. Biden is losing. Polling is definitely still broken, but it’s consistent. There is no fuckery.
Biden needs to be up by 4-12 in those states if he wants to win.
See my posts in !data_vizualisations@lemmy.world . I make a map of the offset in polling Biden needs to win a given state based on the fact that polls consistently overestimate how well Biden will do, and underestimate how well Trump will do.
When you see these poll numbers, you should subtract 4 for Biden, and add 8 for Trump. That was the offsets we observed from the 2020 election.
So keeping in mind data you already have about Trump, Biden, polling and it’s departure from real election results, it’s not even a question. Mortgage you house and out all your money on Trump to win. You have a differential polling error of 12 points in a Biden Trump head to head. Biden needs to be in the mid to high fifties across the board to have a chance.
He’s in the low forties.
If you don’t end up clicking the link: Relative polling error for Biden V Trump, 2020.
This is quite interesting, thanks for sharing!
My only critique is that I don’t think 2020 skew is valid anymore. After Dobbs, the landscape seems to have significantly changed. 2022 was predicted to favor Republicans by a strong margin, but it ended up being a tie pretty much. And a lot of special elections have had surprising results too.
My personal opinion is that polling methodology may have overcorrected for 2020, and we’re getting a picture now that’s skewed right, versus left from beforehand.
It’s really hard to say though. There weren’t a lot of great polls to start with in 2022, and special elections don’t have significant polling either. It’s a weird position where the only good data set we have is from 2020, but there have been so many changes in the national environment that we have reason to doubt the skews from 2020 are still valid. But at the same time, what else do we have? Vibes and feelings and anecdotes. And the engineer in me dislikes dismissing data in favor of vibes. It’s important to consider still I think, because none of this is infallible. But I honestly couldn’t tell you what the “right” outlook to have is. Maybe I’m onto something, but maybe I’m just letting optimism bleed into my better judgement.
All I know is that I don’t know.
My personal opinion is that polling methodology may have overcorrected for 2020, and we’re getting a picture now that’s skewed right, versus left from beforehand.
I won’t say that you’re wrong about what the pollsters are doing – but to me this strikes me as very obviously the wrong way to do it.
If you find out your polls were wrong, and then instead of digging into detail as to what exactly went wrong, and then fixing the methodology going forward, using non-phone polls, doing a more accurate calculation to make sure you’re weighting the people who are going to vote and not the people who aren’t going to vote, things like that … you just make up a fudge factor for how wrong the polls were last time, and assume that if you just add that fudge factor in then you don’t have to fix all the things that went wrong on a more fundamental level, that seems guaranteed to keep being wrong for as long as you’re doing it.
Again I won’t say you’re wrong about how they’re going about it. (And, I’m not saying it’s necessarily easy to do or anything.) But I think you’ve accurately captured the flaw in just adding a fudge factor and then assuming you’ll be able to learn anything from the now-corrected-for-sure-until-next-time-when-we-add-in-how-wrong-we-were-this-time answers.
That’s the thing, we don’t know how they’re correcting for it, and if it is just a fudge factor. The issue is there’s more confounding factors that anyone could list which could be the culprit here.
A fudge factor is easy, but the wrong solution here. But the right solution is incredibly complex and difficult to even identify. In my field we can get away with using a timer instead of a precise calculation sometimes. That really isn’t an option for polls. I don’t favor the people trying to fix the models.
I mean if we’re stepping off the data into editorialism, Trump out performed all other Republicans in 2020, like he also did in 2016. As well, Trump endorsed candidates struggled in 2018, and 2022, and special elections. My read of this evidence and I’ve seen it suggested elsewhere, is that whatever property it is that causes Trump to consistently over perform isn’t transitive. So evaluating how well Trump will perform against how well Republicans are performing is misguided. You should evaluate candidates individually, and that would agree with their performance.
Also, this is one poll. The aggregate of polling agrees with this one poll. The minor methodological changes they make from year to year are infact extremely minor and they are doing the appropriate statistical accounting afaict. There is nothing weird or wonky about these polls: Biden is just performing very very poorly. I’ve been saying this for months to an onslaught of downvotes from people who simply don’t want to believe this to be the case.
Finally, I’ll argue that the ‘right’ outlook is always the one that aligns most closely with the data. We should believe stories we tell about data less than data itself. There is nothing to suggest that this election will really be anything that different than the 3 previous, and in terms of landscapes, the best proxy appears to be 2016 in terms of contested states. You should believe the data that is telling you that Joe Biden is losing this election. Biden has been setting up to lose the upper Midwest since December. These are the same states Hillary lost.
maybe I’m just letting optimism bleed into my better judgement
I agree. It’s also what the political pundit class did when they completely wiffed on 2016, and it’s what they’re doing right now. 90% of Lemmy also agrees with your sentiment, and in both Lemmy’s and the punditry’s refusal to be critical of Biden, to drag him towards more popular policies, they’re setting Trump up for victory.
I don’t really disagree with anything you’ve said, it’s a very valid take – and you’re spot on about underestimating Trump but overestimating Republican cohorts in polls. My only qualifier there is that we don’t know if 2022 models were overtuned for only Republicans, or also Trump support.
I don’t know if we can take 2016 as representative of our current dynamic. I think it’s certainly more representative than 2020 however, but shifting populations and world/domestic events have had massive impacts.
In short? I don’t know which outlook is more accurate. What I can reasonably assert though is that the reality will be somewhere between the less optimistic and the more optimistic outlooks. Taking these poll results at face value is probably the better strategic option anyway to create pressure to go vote and campaign.
I agree though, we shouldn’t be totally dismissive of these polls. It’s fine to scrutinize and question them like I’ve said, but it shouldn’t take away from the very real possibility that these are correct. Oddities don’t create impossibilities.
If you’ve been following the polling there is nothing different or unique about this one.
They posted their methodology and to me, as an unqualified lay person, it’s clearly shit, and there’s no reason to think it’ll yield anything even resembling an accurate picture of how people are going to vote in the election. It’s not surprising to me that recent polls in general tend to be as inaccurate as you’re saying they are.
I would be interested to go back and look at some of the polling that led up to recent special elections where Democrats won, and see how the poll results compared with the election results – if you follow polling in detail (which again, I don’t), do you happen to know where I could look to find that?
They posted their methodology and to me, as an unqualified lay person (…)
So like, if you know the above statement to be true, that’s exactly where you should stop in your reasoning. This is something that I find Americans to be guilty if constantly, which is to have the humility to understand that they shouldn’t have an opinion, and the proceed to arrogantly have the opinion they just acknowledged they shouldn’t have. I think it’s a deeply human thing, that we evolved to have to deal with missing information and so our brain fills in gaps and gives us convincing narratives. However, you have to resist the tendency when you know you really don’t know: and even more so when your beliefs go against what the data is.
If you can find me some sources of data on special elections, I’ll happily analyze it for you. I think it would be interesting if nothing else to see the offset. I’m not on my desktop machine, but I’ll give you some sources for data since you asked.
Surely as a qualified non lay person you’ll be able to do a detailed takedown of all the criticism I arrived at for the poll’s methodology from like 2 minutes of looking, instead of just making a broad assertion that if the polling was wrong by a certain amount in a previous year we should add that amount to this year’s polling to arrive at reality, and that’s all that’s needed and then this year’s corrected poll will always be accurate.
Because to me, that sounds initially plausible but then when you look at it for a little bit longer you say, oh wait hang on, if that was all that was needed the professional pollsters could just do that, and their answers would always be right. And you wouldn’t need to look closely at the methodology at all, just trust that “it’s a poll” means it’s automatically equal to every other poll (once you apply the magic correction factor.)
To me that sounds, on close scientific examination, like a bunch of crap once you think about it for a little bit. But what do I know. I’m unqualified. I’ll wait for you to educate me.
I think the right answer is to do what you described, in the aggregate. Don’t do it on a pollster to pollster basis, do it at the state level, across all polls. You don’t do this as a pollster because that isn’t really what you are trying to to model with a poll, and polls being wrong or uncertain is just a part of the game.
So it’s important to not conflate polling with the meta-analysis of polling.
I’m not so much interested in polls or polling but in being able to use them as a source of data to model outcomes that individually they may not be able to to predict. Ultimately a poll needs to be based on the data it samples from to be valid. If there is something fundamentally flawed in the assumptions that form the basis of this, there isn’t that much you can do to fix it with updates to methods.
the -4, 8 spread is the prior I’m walking into this election year with. That inspire of their pollsters best efforts to come up with a unbiased sample, they can’t predict the election outcome is fine. We can deal with that in the aggregate. This is very similar to Nate Silvers approach.
If there is something fundamentally flawed in the assumptions that form the basis of this, there isn’t that much you can do to fix it with updates to methods.
On this, we 100% agree.
A lot of polls have been putting RFK Jr at 10+ percent. There are a ton of low-information voters who see the name and not much else
Not only putting RFK at 10%, but in states where he isn’t even on the ballot yet and likely will never be.
He’s on the ballot in WI and NV, which is enough that he has the potential to serve as a spoiler
Huh. Well I’m willing to believe that’s reality then.
I mean that’s pretty dismissive.
The largest cohort of people in this country want neither Biden nor Trump. Some of that cohort are willing to step out on a limb and support a third party.
It’s really hard to support somebody like Kennedy when you know his actual positions, and that they’re driven by the fact that a worm ate part of his brain
I’d vote for the worm before I voted for Kennedy, but whomever you are trying to convince isn’t listening. If you want to convince people of something, you need to understand them and why they do what they do.
Clearly at least 10% of voters see having a complete brain as less of a deal breaker than being either Biden or Trump. We should be curious as to why that is.
I’m listening — and when you talk to people, a lot of them don’t know.
Yeah I don’t see 10% of people voting for a guy who had a fucking worm somehow get into his brain, chew through part of his frontal lobe, and then die, and is still in there.
they are voting for his name. not him
Your issue is you fail to understand how stupid and shortsighted and uninformed the average person is.
I live in one of the most educated states in american, and plenty of people here are complete idiots when it comes to politics and pretty much everyone under 30 is anti-biden and anti-trump and pro-being a whiny removed about life who refuses to take any accountability but delights in trash talking how everything sucks and the world will end. Along with some grandstanding about how ‘alt’ they are for being anarchist or communist or whatever. But if you ask them specific policy questions they lose their shit because they don’t know and don’t care. Politics is all about image/branding for them so they can feel smug and superior to ‘boring old status quo people’ like myself who will vote for Biden.
I voted for Clinton with a funeral dirge in my heart at an empty polling place. Then I voted for Biden.
I despise Neoliberals. I’m a socialist. If I can swallow my pride and volunteer to be fucked with no lube instead of being hit by a fascist freight train yet again, you can too.
That said, this country is over, Rejecting the Reagan giveaway was the last chance to begin righting this ship now halfway under water from decades of celebrated antisocial avarice made legal. I’m voting Biden to minimize needless cruelty and scapegoating of vulnerable groups as we collapse from capitalist greed rot and firesale. That is the extent of our vote’s power as our owners bought both parties on economic policy allegiance decades ago, so be kind with it.
We don’t need to collapse AND have our chosen Nero in the white house using their bully pulpit to blame it on everyone from undocumented immigrants to pregnant women to lgbtq, etc and getting them murdered in the streets for what Wall Street profiteers, safe in their guarded towers and luxury bunkers, have wrought.
The impending food shortages and mass homelessness crises will be bad enough.
I will vote as every serous socialist in America has since debs lost, as far left as can win. Every capitalist will bring the crisis of capitalism
40% of voters are Gen Z or Millenial…
Throw in Gen X and it’s the majority
I wish the DNC started treated them as the main chunk of Dem voters and not a bunch of spoiled children for wanting politicians that represent them instead of their grandparents
It should be comically easy to beat trump, but people just don’t like elderly neoliberals, because of their policies, actions, and often lack of actions.
Gen X does not vote with Gen Z and millennials. They tend to vote alongside the boomers. Therefore, we get Biden.
That is completely unbelievable and I would be very surprised to see a source instead of just an opinion that Genx are Biend supporters with boomers.
Hell, boomers don’t even vote for Biden, most of them go trump.
The Democratic party’s main base has always been the youth, but the party fucking hates them because their more liberal than someone 60 years older.
If the party embraced them, we’d never have another Republican president.
I looked at that article and it doesn’t seem at all related to your claim…
If Biden and Trump really are tied among Gen Z voters, I’m afraid Gen Z voters just don’t understand the American election system. If we don’t get Biden, we get Trump, which would be infinitely worse for most of the causes they are angry with Biden on.
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What are your expectations? Biden has implemented far more policy than he gets credit for. He can’t fix everything all at once. It has taken us decades to get where we are, one presidential term is not going to be enough to right the ship.
We all have to work within the framework as it exists today - even the president. He has some challenging lines to walk just to get seemingly simple things done.
So what policies do you want? And in what ways have Biden’s progress been unacceptable to you? In what ways have they been acceptable? Given the current landscape, what do you realistically think he could or should do differently?
We all have to work within the framework as it exists today - even the president. He has some challenging lines to walk just to get seemingly simple things done.
Well, not exactly, the POTUS position gobbled up power both right at WW II and right at 9/11. The US’s semi-democratic system is wide open to power grab and corruption. Nobody ever uses the fucking thing to do any good, tho
So what policies do you want?
Literally just stop the support to Israel and you win the election
I’m afraid Gen Z voters just don’t understand the American election system
Maybe they’re fucking tired of pretending they can influence anything in this rigged bullshit of a world? Trump looses and still doesn’t get any justice in court, there is still no healthcare and minimum wage remains at 1856 levels because FoReFatHeRs of some bullshit, while jeff bezos fucks them in the ass along with their boss and landlord. Tiktok gets banned because the government doesn’t want them to laugh at „israel bad” memes and the climate still falls apart after 10-20 years.
Sure, trump wins and everything gets even worse but stop criticizing people who don’t want to vote when their promised „democracy” is terrible and even worse. They simply don’t believe in their freedom anymore and it’s the fault of their country which viscously takes everything from them. Letting it go to shit might just be their form of a protest. First boomers fucked everything up for them and now they’re screaming „save us”.
Fair enough. But running away stomping and screaming never helped anyone. This is a marathon, not a sprint. It’s incremental change. Not voting or voting for Trump will never bring about the change they are looking for.
Fair enough. But running away stomping and screaming never helped anyone. This is a marathon, not a sprint. It’s incremental change. Not voting or voting for Trump will never bring about the change they are looking for.
Precisely why conservatives are winning. They have been working towards their goals for 40+ years and they don’t give up. They vote.
Definitely. Conservatives are seeing huge victories that have been in the making for decades, even while in minority. The overturning of Roe being the biggest of them all. They are patient and they make sure to vote every time. It’s part of the conservative culture. The liberal voting culture is the opposite. It’s flailing and inconsistent, and much of the constituency can’t even be bothered to show up on election day. There may be more Democratic leaning voters overall, but that doesn’t matter when they don’t show up to vote.
yeah and if i point this out to the 20 something leftist demo, instead of being like ‘oh yeah they win because they vote, maybe we should vote too’ they just call me facist or boring or whatever insult. the left is pathetic in terms of messaging and aligning interest groups, and general has no coherent or consistent belief structure.
i mean i used to be more leftist myself, but god it’s pathetic. i wish the left had the conviction and consistency of the right, then they’d actaully achieve something… like they did in the 60s… but you know that’s ‘history’ and the left is totally allergic to that concept as well because it’s ‘colonialism and oppression’
I’m the opposite. Used to be center-right, now I’m truly left. Trump and Covid really made me realize that these people are absolutely out there. There’s no reasoning with them. It’s all ideology, zero common sense. But they do vote consistently. That is for sure.
The only problem is that it’s an incremental change for the worse. No matter which geriatric asshole you vote for.
It’s not. The incremental change is vastly different with Biden and Trump. Biden has made tons of big and small changes that no one remembers because all the focus is on Gaza and Ukraine and Trump.
This is completely tone deaf to the things that Biden HAS been able to accomplish. I’d encourage you to research his presidency before you accept and parrot all of the bad things you hear.
To name just a few:
- Unprecedented student loan debt relief
- Improvements to Medicare including the ability to negotiate drug prices and capping prices of certain medications like insulin
- Extremely low unemployment, just a few short years after the pandemic
- Pardoning of minor federal marijuana convictions and initiated the process of having marijuana rescheduled
- A push to make birth control pills available OTC without a prescription in the wake of conservative attacks on reproductive health rights
- Renewed focus on infrastructure spending
- Policies friendly to green energy
And that’s not mentioning the things that could have happened were it not for constant obstruction of Republicans - specifically, efforts to better protect our borders and efforts to curb gun violence.
The president is not a king or autocrat no matter how much Trump and Republicans might disagree. His policy decisions must be focused in order to make any progress at all. He can’t simply wave his hand and make everything a magical utopia.
So before you continue complaining about the lack of progress, I implore you: take ten minutes to do some Google searches about the things that are important to you and the reasons why more progress is not being made. You might be surprised at weary you learn.
It is critically important that we do not give up ground and backslide because the conservative media machine is so powerful that it makes it seem like nothing good has happened.
That individual likely isn’t going to reply. Assume maliciousness before ignorance. That said, please keep replying like this. We don’t know how big our impacts are though hopefully we are able to change a mind and correct the bad narrative trying to take hold.
This comment boiled down:
It’s not apathy, it’s anger! So that’s okay!
Accelerationism is such a disgustingly privileged stance.
Do you want to teach and encourage them to give up so quickly in the face of long-lasting international issues? That’s what you are doing and I hope they see that. This Isreal and Palestine thing did not start in October.
Please redirect your attention to election reform. Fix the system.
Maybe not, but this war started in October
It escalated in October but even shortly before there were regular clashes.
I’m sorry, I must be misunderstanding you. You aren’t asserting that the Israeli/Palestinian conflict in Gaza started within the last 12 months, are you?
Because if you are, then I strongly encourage you to look a little bit deeper into this whole thing. It’s been going on for decades.
I’m talking about this particular war. Before October 7th, they we’re in a cease fire and it would have stayed that way if not for Hamas
A ceasefire, by definition and historical example, is a temporary stopping of hostile activity. Often this is to have a chat between leaders. If we assume all ceasefires occur for peace talks clearly this one didn’t end well.
So no, this isn’t a new war. This is the same war and same set of conflicts. Though the original reasons have probably been lost with time, or evolved further into bullshit.
Lol, word it however you want, but they weren’t fighting the day before, or the week before. The fighting that we are witnessing now wouldn’t be happening if Hamas didn’t attack them on Oct. 7
stop criticizing people who don’t want to vote when their promised „democracy” is terrible and even worse.
How exactly do you think a democratic election that runs on votes is supposed to work? What exactly is not voting going to do, other than ensure that the folks who are voting for the candidate that is more inclined to do more damage to this country wins?
Even if you dislike both candidates, not voting isn’t going to fix anything. Vote for whoever is least likely to destroy the country and make it hell for certain people, and then focus your efforts locally and trying to inspire change on the local level.
Hey, I’m all for an armed socialist revolution. Maybe a few guillotines.
Until we get that organized tho, you’ll just have to vote so that we can actually organize it.
The joke of 2020 was people screaming about how Trump was very obviously guilty of very real crimes and we needed to get him out to prosecute him.
Then we… didn’t. Ninety-one indictments and the bulk of them have been deferred or dropped. The single remaining case in SDNY isn’t stopping him from campaigning and isn’t meaningfully threatening his ability to assume office.
Sure, trump wins and everything gets even worse but stop criticizing people who don’t want to vote when their promised „democracy” is terrible and even worse.
I’m living in a city where the school district was simply taken over by the Governor. All the HISD school board elections are rendered meaningless. The superintendent is just a charter school flak who exists to dismantle public education. No democratic accountability. Outright looting of the ISD’s budget. The Feds have expressed no interest in interceding in interstate embezzlement.
And we’re told the only way to stop this is to vote. Vote for what? Nobody currently running wants to stop this dismantling of a foundational element of modern civilization. Hell, even the Dem-endorsed new Houston Mayor is just along for the ride on this shit.
I’ve said it before and I’ll keep saying it again and again; of course you don’t like the Democrat candidate; but you’ve got to swallow your damned medicine or the outcome will be exponentially worse.
Yeah, I voted for Hillary. I hate her so goddamn much. But you know who I hate more? The orange asshole. So I did what I had to do, I swallowed my anger and voted for the removed. No protest vote, no skipping out on it, just sucking it up and doing what had to be done. If more people had followed my example, and the example of many others, we wouldn’t be rapidly watersliding dowe the lubed-up slope to outright, unapologetic fascism.
of course you don’t like the Democrat candidate; but you’ve got to swallow your damned medicine
Tincture of Mercury and a regular bloodletting will give us the strength we need to fight off the Trump Virus.
So I did what I had to do
You did, but when the Dem Party regained office in 2020 they didn’t.
Dems had an opportunity to give DC statehood in 2021. Two free senators, a house seat, and an easy 3 EC votes. This legislation was queued up and ready to go and the Dem majority just… didn’t do it. So now 660k Americans are once again going into 2024 fully disenfranchised, in an election when every vote counts.
This isn’t the only way in which the Dems sabotage their own success. But it can’t be ignored how a party that zealously backed guys like Henry Cuellar and Bob Menendez during primaries, long after they’d been outed as crooks and frauds, are the biggest threats to their own success. Never even mind the horrifying genocide in Palestine or the slavish devotion to fossil fuel subsidies or the shameless pandering to crypto-bros.
If more people had followed my example, and the example of many others, we wouldn’t be rapidly watersliding dowe the lubed-up slope to outright, unapologetic fascism.
Every election gives the fascist party larger voter turnout. This isn’t an issue of apathy, but of escalating tensions. Election turnout over the last six years has been reaching century-long highs but its a two-edged sword. Republican activists have been very successful in building up their own local majorities.
More people are following your example. Even in the face of gerrymandering. Even in the face of voter caging. Even in the face of shameless criminal-but-unprosecuted efforts at disenfranchisement.
But that includes conservatives. More and more of them, every year, as Trump drives an enthusiasm for the GOP I haven’t seen since Reagan.
While I agree with your message, can you please refrain from name calling Hillary? In particular using that word. She’s not perfect, no one is but that term is unnecessary.
Agreed. She’s more of a cunt than a removed.
Republicans in the courts and the legislation block anything that helps those key demographics the article talks about
“bIdEn IsN’t DoInG eNoUgH!!”
It would have been the easiest dunk of his life to go to Manchin or sinema’s districts and hold a rally for legislations that they are blocking and would have garnered support from younger people because he is actually trying and applying pressure. Not just making a statement and saying “owell I tried”.
You want Biden to go into ruby red districts where a dem-in-name-only got into power by the skin of their teeth, and campaign for Democratic policies, and you think those people will welcome him? You think it will be easy??
You’re in a bubble, dude. There’s no silent majority of progressives out there. Just because all of your friends are doesn’t mean the whole nation is.
Manchin got elected because he blocked Dem policies. Not in spite of it.
Then fuck Manchin. If you don’t want to play ball the dems should do everything in their power to make you toe the line. Run as a republican if you want to vote against dem policies.
He DID play ball. That’s why we keep him.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-62328875
Manchin is better than a Republican because we can work with him sometimes. You don’t want him to be able to hold up bills? Don’t give us a bare bones Senate majority. Get more Dems in Congress.
Dems have a majority in the Senate but we need to “VoTe HaRder”. Nah you neolibs will come up with every excuse to be goo lite and cry and piss your pants when people don’t want your shitty crumbs anymore.
51-50 is enough to give Manchin and Sinema power.
55-45 would negate Manchin and Sinema.
60-40 would negate the GOP.
So, yes. Fucking vote harder. It matters.
Kids need better civics education so they can keep their expectations of what our government is capable of as low as possible, that way they don’t feel like voting is useless and give up.
blah blah blah, don’t listen to the new york times about polling right now, it’s all for clicks, not for any actually substances of truth.
This is a more meaningful critique — the poll is surely real, but that doesn’t mean Biden is going to experience some sort of guaranteed loss.
New York Times doing its thing again
Presenting the poll results for registered voters, with candidates limited to Biden or Trump with no RFK involved, both of which are decisions which will swing things towards Trump and away from reality, is a decision that I’m hard pressed to explain any other way than that they’re looking for the worst numbers they can present.
It’s not even like the answers to the more accurate question were even any better for Biden. To me they look more or less the same (i.e. serious trouble for Biden). My only explanation is that a lot of these likely voters don’t know their ass from their elbow (e.g.
Oooooh
This is interesting.
Look at the question “What one issue is most important in deciding your vote this November?”
It leads off with:
- The economy (including jobs and the stock market)
- Inflation and the cost of living
- Abortion
- Immigration
- Crime
- Gun policies
… and then, way down below, is “The state of democracy/corruption” (with 6% still bucking the trend to vote for it), and “The Middle East/Israel/Palestinians” (2%).
Lo and behold, a whole lot of people voted for one of the first two options, and also tended to answer questions about how they felt about the economy overall, and whether they felt overall happy with how things were going, accordingly.
I would be interested to see how this poll was presented exactly (especially whether written or verbal, and what order for the questions), and what the numbers would be if there was a similar weight of questioning and emphasis given to “The state of democracy/corruption” as a major issue. Maybe the results would be the same. Maybe not. I’d be interested to see it.
(Edit: Someone else sussed it out better than I did; their methodology was actually much worse and more explicitly slanted than that.)
I know you’re not necessarily making this argument but you mention that the most important issue for voters includes…
and “The Middle East/Israel/Palestinians” (2%).
In Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin the margin in 2020 was less than 2%. Michigan and Nevada were under 3%.
It’s a small number, yes, but this argument that it “won’t matter because people vote on domestic issues” ignores these thin margins, imo. It really might matter more than people think.
I didn’t go into it at any length but I think the number of people who, in the actual election, will have the Gaza war impact the way they vote is way higher than 2%. About 13% of Democrats voted “uncommitted” in the Michigan primary, which presumably they wouldn’t have done because of crime, immigration, or whatever other “non-most-important” issues according to this poll.
I think hanging out on Lemmy can give you the impression that more people overall care about Palestine than the number that actually do. But the number definitely isn’t 2%. I’m not at all saying that the real number is 2% and so it doesn’t matter; I’m saying the number is definitely higher than 2% and so this poll is random-phone-number-calling-barking-questions-at-people uninformative garbage.
Gotcha! Definitely agree about Lemmy being an echo chamber for this type of stuff but I also doubt it’s only 2%. Michigan is a good example, even if it was 2% it doesn’t mean it’s equally spread across states.
Also it would be a bit of a mistake to assume only the “most important” issue would impact voting choice, or more importantly, the choice to not vote
Yeah. That whole massive list of “most important” issues which were apparently listed out verbally to people, over the phone, by a bored call center employee, and the list’s suspicious inclusion of multiple versions of “economic issues” with suspicious particular trigger words right at the beginning (where, purely by coincidence I’m sure, a lot of people decided their most important issues were), all form part of an overall picture of big parts of this poll not really meaning anything, let alone the foofaraw that the New York Times seems to want to make it into down to the resolution of individual percentage points.
I would be interested to see how this poll was presented exactly
Have you tried the article?
If that doesn’t answer your questions, it links to the poll questions and breakdowns…
But it seems like you just don’t believe in polls, which is weird because I honestly can’t remember presidential polling not getting in the margin of error of the real result.
This is the same shit that happened in 2016 and 202:
The polls say my favorite isn’t winning! Polls are lying! Everyone ignore the polls and act smug we’ll win!
If you’re somehow actually a Biden supporter, these polls should have you working harder to do the only thing that can help him beat Trump:
Pull him to the left.
Or you could spend the run up to the election telling people not to listen to polls and instead…
I dunno? Read tea leaves? What is exactly is your alternative?
Pretend we’re ostriches and stick our heads in the sand? We won’t be able to see any warning signs but you’re gonna ignore them anyways. So sure, you go first and the rest of us will stick our heads in the sand right after you, promise.
Just you go first.
Read tea leaves? What is exactly is your alternative?
Other people in other threads have found more of the fucky things about this poll; it was a phone poll which 2% of people answered the phone for, which made no attempt to correct for “what ideological mentalities are likely to answer the phone to random numbers”, and then on top of that explicitly made adjustments like increasing the weight of non-college-educated people for some pretty dubious reason.
Polls sound great. The fact that the election is even within 10 points, or 20, should lead to alarm in the Biden camp, and cause some deep soul searching for what went so wrong in the American system that we could be talking about electing Lex Luthor mayor and people are taking it seriously as an idea and it’s even a question of who is going to win the election. I think education and media are the main culprits. Concrete things Biden is doing are not unrelated, exactly (especially on aid for Israel), but they honestly don’t seem to make all that much difference, and a lot of people who are voicing concerns about him seem totally unaware of concrete things he’s been doing.
I’m by no means saying don’t be alarmed. I think we should be very alarmed. But yes, also, I think we should call out bullshit polls when they are as clearly bullshit as this one is (as part of examining the reasons why a respectable news outlet would even be reporting a close poll between Biden and Trump as anything other than the absolute looming catastrophe that it objectively is.)
If you’re somehow actually a Biden supporter, these polls should have you working harder
That’s actually a really good point – I’ll try to come up with some concrete things I can do to help Biden win sometimes later today. I just went to verify that I’m registered to vote (I still am), and I think maybe a good thing politically overall would be a little informational thing about who to vote for in Congress. Presumably some little tool already exists that can tell if your congresspeople have been voting for aid for Israel, inform your voting accordingly instead of just blindly checking the D box, things like that, but I don’t know all that much about it.
IDK, I’ll see what I can come up with later on today if I have some time. It’s a good reminder that talking on the internet without some sort of action isn’t always a good investment of time.
The fact that the election is even within 10 points, or 20, should lead to alarm in the Biden camp,
But…
It’s within 1 or points…
Unless… Are you ignoring everything but popular vote polls across the whole country?
If you’re doing that and not understanding why it’s a bad idea, then that explains why you think polls are bad, but you’re still wrong. Your just looking at polls that don’t matter because those are the ones you agree with
Me: Explains in detail what’s suspect about this specific poll, while still expressing overall alarm at the state of Biden being in trouble in the election
You:
You know what, I don’t even want to summarize it. This is why letting shills or bad faith people participate in the discussion in the first place is a bad idea. I could be using this time to talk with other people who are above-board about what they think, who read and respond to what’s actually said, instead of me investing even a single minute in writing up a message “actually that’s not what I said or even remotely close to it, and you’re just misrepresenting me to make a bizarrely slanted attack on Biden and his supporters, which is your job apparently.”
Feel free to read what I actually said, and respond to it, otherwise please piss off.
You know what, I don’t even want to summarize it
Instead you just did a straw man?
Lemmy is a small place man, the people who constantly rant against science if it doesn’t back up their opinions stick out. Especially when it’s a topic someone knows about like statistical analysis.
This isn’t the first time we’ve had this conversation…
Actually, if you wanna educate me on science and polling, can you answer this question? That’s one that I am genuinely curious about that I don’t know the answer to; maybe if you’re super up to speed on polling you might know.
This is the only question there:
I would be interested to go back and look at some of the polling that led up to recent special elections where Democrats won, and see how the poll results compared with the election results – if you follow polling in detail (which again, I don’t), do you happen to know where I could look to find that?
But yes, if you can tell me what race specifically, it would take two seconds to find a poll for you.
And I’m willing to do that if you can calm down with the insults and multiple replies if I don’t respond immediately.
It’s the work day homie, you gotta give people more than 5 minutes to respond before spamming them. But this is important, if there’s a chance you’ll start believing in science again, I can spend less than a minute googling something for you.
That’s me, I love strawmen and said a whole bunch about what your argument even was, and I hate science. You got me.
The system is old and ossified. No one on the left, save for progressives, seems interested in shaking things up. It’s too bad, I would have rather had a leftwing populist revolution. At least workers would get paid fairly…but this is backwards-ass America so, instead, we’ll get what we deserve.
The president has little say on the laws that Congress passes. Vote for your local senators and representatives! The only way to realize change is to vote in your local elections!
It is local and state government that is important to making changes! Republicans have figured this out decades ago and have been gerrymandering and packing courts for decades.
The president can’t waive a magic wand and make any change he wants.
The president has little say on the laws that Congress passes.
Vetoes
Executive Orders
Judicial Appointments
Fundraising for Congressional Candidates
An Attorney General that can argue against legislation in federal courts
An enormous administrative bureaucracy that authors internal policy under broader federal mandates
A Vice President who breaks ties in a Senate split 48(D)/3(I)/49®
But other than that…
We live in the worst timeline.
Do these voters have even a passing familiarity with Ronald McDonald and his plans for them?
They do not
Been looking bad for Biden for months now, I think his key mistake is waiting for the convention to start massively campaigning.
There’s no reason for him to be doing that badly in PA.
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The problem is the bad results for Biden are showing the same, across multiple polls, multiple states, and multiple times.
If you look at the battleground states, they went from +Biden, to tossup, to +Trump over the course of 3 or 4 months.
You can’t say “Oh, but the polls we liked were accurate, the ones now are not.”
Look at Pennsylvania, nominally Joe’s home state. “Son of Scranton” and all that.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/pennsylvania/
January/February they flipped back and forth a bit, but Biden hasn’t led a poll there since March 26th.
That’s a disaster because PA is a must win state, he can’t win the election without it and it’s one of the states that doomed Hillary’s run.
PA, MI, WI. He needs all three and he’s desperately behind in all three. It’s not one poll, it’s a pattern of polls across months.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/michigan/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/wisconsin/
Now, where Hillary’s problem was she took states like Michigan and Wisconsin for granted and failed to campaign there, Biden’s problem is he’s taking too long to campaign there, and he’s burning money in states that his advisors are telling him are in play (Florida, North Carolina) when they really are not.
Biden can’t wait until the convention in August to start the campaign proper, and that seems to be what he’s doing. That only gives him just 78 days to mount an effective defense. 2 months and change.
