I once wrote a very silly thing that I called something like “global revolution in one year”, where, as the title would suggest, in the span of a mere 365 days the entire capitalist system collapsed across the entire world. Trying to imagine how something could go from its present state to a completely opposite state in the span of a year or a decade can be a great way to develop a feeling of optimism and control, as well as spontaneous creativity, that makes someone a good revolutionary.

Obviously I don’t actually believe that we will witness the complete collapse of capitalism across the entire globe and the establishment of die sozialistische Weltrepublik in the span of only 365 days. It’s probably going to happen piece by piece over the course of, as you say, 20 years.

Incidentally, the last bourgeois republic to fall was Australia, more specifically the Whadjuk territory in and around Perth.

There are some particular things that I want to highlight:

• Revolution happens when people are materially poor enough to desire change but materially rich enough to be able to effect it. For countries in the imperial periphery, they need the wealth and stability for successful revolutions; for countries in the imperial core, all that is needed is a little desperation, frankly probably less desperation than most people think. In the Western revolutionaries of today we see the contradictions that will create the Western revolutionaries of the future — the number will only increase.
• Revolution outside the West and the generally growing geopolitical influence of Latin America, Africa, and the countries of Asia, creates the conditions for revolution within the West: when the West cannot rely on cheap raw materials from the “poor countries”, it must rely on its own resources; when the West cannot rely on these countries’ cheap manufacturing, either, it must rely on its own manufacturing. This will heighten class conflict while also building a stronger and more socially connected proletariat. Note that even just revolution in a few countries can be enough to critically disrupt imperialism’s supply chains — this is why the story focuses so much on revolutionary movements in countries near maritime chokepoints.
• There are growing divisions within the ruling class. It always happens that when the ruling class has its attention divided by infighting, that it is easier to fight against it, as well as that the common people are more motivated to fight against it, as it is the common people who must bear the brunt of capitalists’ infighting. If people would already risk their lives in a pointless war for their masters, one can imagine that to risk one’s life in a meaningful war for themselves would suddenly feel much more appealing. Chen Sheng and Wu Guang took up arms because the alternative was execution, after all.
• Capitalism cannot survive pandemics and climate change. In the course of the past year Eastern Norway was rammed both by the extreme weather “Hans” as well as by the infamous snow chaos of January 17th and the ensuing power outages. It is in these types of natural disasters that people get a glimpse of life outside of capitalism, where the institutions of state fail to provide for them and people have to rely on the kindness of family, friends, and even strangers. Where people develop new skills and gain new knowledge as they overcome unexpected obstacles, and where people simply don’t get to work and supply chains break down.
• Keep your eyes on Scotland and other independence movements within Western Europe and the Anglosphere. For that matter keep your eyes on all ethnic minorities in Western countries, and to the peripheral and semi-peripheral countries right next to the imperial core — we can certainly imagine Western Europe growing more economically reliant on Russia as American influence dwindles.
• Those we might label as “white” do not play a passive role. Even when the “treat machine” is still functional, some number will participate in strikes and protests as well as in sabotage and funding et cetera which aid the revolutionary cause. The natural response among white Americans is to emigrate when the going gets tough and the opportunity arises; in the story, those whites who had to (or chose to) stay on Turtle Island established “dissileagues”, which would eventually negotiate effective mergers with various Indigenous governments to create “leagues of commons” as one component of dual power.

I also recently wrote a different silly thing where in the span of a year or two, the region where I live (I’m talking an area with ca. 20,000 people, 200 km²) would experience a socialist insurgency, the building of dual power, and would eventually declare independence outright. Once again, I obviously don’t believe that this will actually happen, but the premise of that story is basically that one fairly minor grievance can quickly escalate into many very major grievances, if neither side wishes to give in, and it ultimately took only a handful of people making a few easy and rational decisions to cause that to happen.

And it definitely felt different to imagine “Western revolution” not as this grand abstract thing, but imagining how it might play out in these hyper-specific locations that I’m very intimately familiar with, places that I’ve seen hundreds or thousands of times, and tracing how average people’s grievances and interests and how far they’ll go to address them shift bit by bit through experience.

Edit: Why do I always confuse the words “insurrection” and “insurgency”? I need to get better sleep.