I agree that Iran apparently prefers not to escalate (although it’s hard to say whether its attack was deliberately limited or simply couldn’t penetrate Israel’s defenses) but this is consistent with Iran’s strategy of acting through proxies. Iran doesn’t want a more direct confrontation with Israel because the status quo allows it to damage Israel much more safely and cost-effectively than it could by fighting directly. In this context, effective Israeli action against Iran requires escalation because otherwise even defeating the proxies is still a net loss for Israel, and so killing the specific Iranian leaders responsible is a good strategy because it makes hostile action against Israel much more costly specifically to those instigating it.
so killing the specific Iranian leaders responsible is a good strategy
You lost me there. Perhaps some people would agree, but likely only until it’s their leaders being killed in their embassies. There are international norms giving embassies protected status for a reason. Would you think Iran killing US officials doing negotiations in Egypt is a good strategy?
Please don’t. The Iranian attack was a limited response that they let everyone know about days in advance and only targeted military facilities. Iran has also said it considers the matter concluded, even though they only inflicted minor damage and as far as I know didn’t kill anyone. Contrast that with the Israeli attack which targeted an embassy (which aren’t supposed to be targets) within the borders of a foreign country and killed several people including senior Iranian officials.
Iran punched back to let you know they would if pushed, and they even pulled the punch. It’s over for now, so don’t keep pushing.
This is key. Iran retaliated against Israel for bombing its embassy.
What’s that you say? Israel should grossly over-react?
They’d never
BUT THEN HOW IS EVERYONE GOING TO KNOW THAT OUR DICKS ARE BIG ENOUGH?!?!?!?!
/s
I agree that Iran apparently prefers not to escalate (although it’s hard to say whether its attack was deliberately limited or simply couldn’t penetrate Israel’s defenses) but this is consistent with Iran’s strategy of acting through proxies. Iran doesn’t want a more direct confrontation with Israel because the status quo allows it to damage Israel much more safely and cost-effectively than it could by fighting directly. In this context, effective Israeli action against Iran requires escalation because otherwise even defeating the proxies is still a net loss for Israel, and so killing the specific Iranian leaders responsible is a good strategy because it makes hostile action against Israel much more costly specifically to those instigating it.
You lost me there. Perhaps some people would agree, but likely only until it’s their leaders being killed in their embassies. There are international norms giving embassies protected status for a reason. Would you think Iran killing US officials doing negotiations in Egypt is a good strategy?
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