Dude we’re unprecedented territory and that is basically a gambler’s fallacy. There’s absolutely no reason to believe that the patterns of the past will continue. For example, Biden already disrupted the power of the Incumbent president and ousted Donald short of 2 terms, which itself is a rarity not seen since Carter.
“Worse than the other guy” is basically all that people can take at this point, and I think the best argument going into the election. It works because it’s one of the only arguments against valid criticisms of Biden. “Yes, he is old; but he is better than the other guy for x, y, and z.” Nothing wrong with this strategy.
I do agree that Democrats need to punch back harder, though.
I do agree that Democrats need to punch back harder, though
Specifically, they desperately need to punch Netanyahu in the face and cut off arms shipments, because polling shows that people in the US are pissed as hell that we are enabling genocide and Netanyahu repeatedly publicly humiliates Biden in a way that could not be a more obvious sign that Netanyahu is banking on Trump winning.
I honestly hope you’re right, so would you mind linking me to that polling?
My concern is this: Last I checked a majority of Jewish Americans are still pretty sympathetic to Israel, and the Biden administration must toe the line between pissing off Palestinian Americans and Progressives, and a large traditionally-loyal voting bloc that is Jewish Americans.
If Democrats pivot hard against Netanyahu, they run the risk of Republican ads appealing to low-education voters that, “Biden is sympathetic to Hamas and has no sympathy for October 7th, undermining the defense of Israel and risking another terrorist attack! iS BiDen an aNtiSeMiTe!?”
So from a strategic standpoint, I completely understand the predicament the Biden strategists are in. Obviously you can tell they want to distance themselves from Israel and Netanyahu but not without undermining an essential voting bloc and letting the literal fascist in office who DEFINITELY does not care remotely about being complicit in genocide.
More than one in three Americans believe Israel is committing genocide against Palestinians, a poll published on Wednesday has found.
According to the Economist/YouGov poll, roughly equal numbers of adults believe Israel’s military campaign against Palestinians, which is estimated to have killed more than 25,000 people since 7 October, amounts to genocide: 35% say it is, 36% say it isn’t, with 29% undecided.
Let me be clear, the undecided respondents weren’t sure if they should call what Israel is doing genocide not that they agree with it (which means if they are undecided about using such a strong word, they definitely don’t agree with it). This was from a poll more than a month old, the amount of evidence of Israel committing genocide on Palestinians has only been tragically mounting everyday, that poll taken in the US today in all likelihood would show even less support for children being slaughtered on mass.
Biden is making a massive failure by standing behind Israel because while the mainstream media in the US is in lockstep behind Israel, in general USians aren’t fooled about what is happening here. Unfortunately the same cannot be said for voters in Israel, while Netanyahu isn’t necessarily well loved his policies are popular in the polling within Israel (which is something Israeli Jews are going to have to grapple with for decades to come, how could they have done something so awful in the name of swearing the holocaust would never happen again?).
If Democrats pivot hard against Netanyahu, they run the risk of Republican ads appealing to low-education voters that, “Biden is sympathetic to Hamas and has no sympathy for October 7th, undermining the defense of Israel and risking another terrorist attack! iS BiDen an aNtiSeMiTe!?”
No, Biden is convinced he lives in this reality but the polling in the US establishes quite firmly that this is a fantasy, Israel is speedrunning becoming a pariah state internationally and in the US and Biden refusing to reign in the genocide happening in Israel could very well cost him the election (and if it does, well maybe it should have).
I feel that’s pretty concerning that the plurality says it’s not committing genocide and another 1/3 is unsure. It doesn’t seem that article identified independents or swing-voters. One calculus Biden admin must make is: since the majority of those who claim Israel is committing genocide are Democrats, are said voters really going to stand by and not vote for Biden and let the guy who is objectively worse and will most certainly not just indirectly but directly engage in genocide? Considering these are the better educated voters, I’d hope not and Biden strategists may call their bluff. At least that’s what I’d be discussing on the oval office meeting for reelection.
Ultimately the public needs informed of the atrocities of Israel and Biden should probably try to distinguish Netanyahu’s far-right administration and overstep in response to October 7th from support of Israeli citizens themselves. That’s the needle that needs threaded.
I feel that’s pretty concerning that the plurality says it’s not committing genocide and another 1/3 is unsure.
2/3rds of people in the US think Israel is either committing genocide or they are unwilling to say Israel is definitively NOT committing genocide (which, if you didn’t care or thought what they were doing was fine you wouldn’t say you were undecided on whether Israel is committing genocide, people don’t just throw that word around lightly).
There are very few issues in the US that are a safer bet and besides Netanyahu is quite openly signaling that he hopes Trump wins the election, and yet Biden keeps trying to sidle up to this guy like he is his ally. It isn’t just ethically wrong, it is an incredible unforced political blunder.
edit y’all wanna still argue that Biden is making a good choice here? Biden is stuck in the past and the US populous is screaming for Biden to stop directly enabling genocide. Biden is heading for disaster by being so incredibly out of touch on this issue, and I am really fucking tired of people saying “oh well, when we examine this much later then we will have a serious discussion about it” which is conveniently having the discussion after every single damn Palestinian is either killed or displaced from their homes in Gaza.
I’m not sure those numbers are as rosy for your argument as you’d think. You’re not considering the possibility of someone that does think it’s genocide and wholy approves of it. Which does exist, the “glass em all” types like my father.
I’m pretty sure it all balances out, because other polls are showing it’s still Israel with the popularity advantage even with the downturn.
It’s especially telling that desire to pressure the Palestinians to compromise is dropping faster than the increase to pressure Israel: it’s either people just becoming wishy washy or intentionally wanting the conflict to continue until Israel wipes them out. (Kinda wish Gallup didn’t nix the differentiation between those options tbh).
2/3rds of people in the US think Israel is either NOT committing genocide or they are unwilling to say Israel definitely IS committing genocide (which, if you didn’t care or thought what they were doing wasn’t fine you wouldn’t say you were undecided on whether Israel isn’t committing genocide, people don’t just throw that word around lightly).
For instance, perhaps there are those waiting for the ICC’s verdict.
The only thing that really matters —for aforementioned unaddressed reasons pertaining to the predominantly Democratic voters believing it is genocide — is what swing-voters believe; and if they are undecided or believe Israel is not committing genocide, then they will be the most susceptible to the right-wing propaganda machine that is going to ramp up in the coming months. Biden advisors will clearly wait to see where they fall before fully committing to either side.
And ultimately: Does anyone here actually believe Biden wants to be associated with Genocide? Is he a homicidal maniac happy to see Palestinians suffer? I don’t get that impression.
And If it were that cut-and-dry, why wouldn’t he just abandon Netanyahu entirely?
So it begs the question: what do we as armchair lemmy geniuses believe we know better than the consensus of his advisors and strategists with far more experience and precision survey data than we have?
For instance, perhaps there are those waiting for the ICC’s verdict.
News flash, we won’t here that verdict until way wayyyyy wayyyyyyyyy after the genocide has already happened and the ruling is simply a matter of getting the history of mass murder right, not a matter of stopping mass murder.
Well, judging by the fact that Biden was paid over 5 million dollars by the pro Israel lobby since 1990, and the fact that he’s bending over backwards to facilitate a genocide as we speak, I’d say he’s more than happy to watch the poors get mutilated by an American colony.
^ For bystanders reading: Nudding in another thread somehow managed to blame Biden for the reversal of Roe and that he should magically snap his fingers and override the Supreme Court of the United states… Or something. Anyway, Republicans thank them for their service. Surely Trump will do better, amirite?
Beware of people like this; for nuance isn’t their forte.
And ultimately: Does anyone here actually believe Biden wants to be associated with Genocide? Is he a homicidal maniac happy to see Palestinians suffer? I don’t get that impression.
Actually there is a lot of indicators that a lot of Biden’s cabinet vehemently disagree with Biden’s policy on the Palestinian genocide, Biden doesn’t want to be associated with genocide but at this point the only reasonable conclusion is that Biden is ideologically committed to Israel in a way that blinds him to empathizing with the Palestinian genocide.
This might be one of Biden’s few ideological positions (as opposed to just calculating the middle and taking that position which a politician like him normally does).
but at this point the only reasonable conclusion is that Biden is ideologically committed to Israel in a way that blinds him to empathizing with the Palestinian genocide.
I think I gave another very reasonable logical conclusion that went completely unaddressed, did I not?
I mean, easily 4/5 of my comment went just completely ignored.
My concern is this: Last I checked a majority of Jewish Americans are still pretty sympathetic to Israel, and the Biden administration must toe the line between pissing off Palestinian Americans and Progressives, and a large traditionally-loyal voting bloc that is Jewish Americans.
Then lecture them. Not progressives and leftists for refusing to vote for the guy shipping off bombs.
Dude we’re unprecedented territory and that is basically a gambler’s fallacy. There’s absolutely no reason to believe that the patterns of the past will continue. For example, Biden already disrupted the power of the Incumbent president and ousted Donald short of 2 terms, which itself is a rarity not seen since Carter.
“Worse than the other guy” is basically all that people can take at this point, and I think the best argument going into the election. It works because it’s one of the only arguments against valid criticisms of Biden. “Yes, he is old; but he is better than the other guy for x, y, and z.” Nothing wrong with this strategy.
I do agree that Democrats need to punch back harder, though.
Specifically, they desperately need to punch Netanyahu in the face and cut off arms shipments, because polling shows that people in the US are pissed as hell that we are enabling genocide and Netanyahu repeatedly publicly humiliates Biden in a way that could not be a more obvious sign that Netanyahu is banking on Trump winning.
I honestly hope you’re right, so would you mind linking me to that polling?
My concern is this: Last I checked a majority of Jewish Americans are still pretty sympathetic to Israel, and the Biden administration must toe the line between pissing off Palestinian Americans and Progressives, and a large traditionally-loyal voting bloc that is Jewish Americans.
If Democrats pivot hard against Netanyahu, they run the risk of Republican ads appealing to low-education voters that, “Biden is sympathetic to Hamas and has no sympathy for October 7th, undermining the defense of Israel and risking another terrorist attack! iS BiDen an aNtiSeMiTe!?”
So from a strategic standpoint, I completely understand the predicament the Biden strategists are in. Obviously you can tell they want to distance themselves from Israel and Netanyahu but not without undermining an essential voting bloc and letting the literal fascist in office who DEFINITELY does not care remotely about being complicit in genocide.
Let me be clear, the undecided respondents weren’t sure if they should call what Israel is doing genocide not that they agree with it (which means if they are undecided about using such a strong word, they definitely don’t agree with it). This was from a poll more than a month old, the amount of evidence of Israel committing genocide on Palestinians has only been tragically mounting everyday, that poll taken in the US today in all likelihood would show even less support for children being slaughtered on mass.
Biden is making a massive failure by standing behind Israel because while the mainstream media in the US is in lockstep behind Israel, in general USians aren’t fooled about what is happening here. Unfortunately the same cannot be said for voters in Israel, while Netanyahu isn’t necessarily well loved his policies are popular in the polling within Israel (which is something Israeli Jews are going to have to grapple with for decades to come, how could they have done something so awful in the name of swearing the holocaust would never happen again?).
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/jan/24/americans-believe-israel-committing-genocide-poll
No, Biden is convinced he lives in this reality but the polling in the US establishes quite firmly that this is a fantasy, Israel is speedrunning becoming a pariah state internationally and in the US and Biden refusing to reign in the genocide happening in Israel could very well cost him the election (and if it does, well maybe it should have).
I feel that’s pretty concerning that the plurality says it’s not committing genocide and another 1/3 is unsure. It doesn’t seem that article identified independents or swing-voters. One calculus Biden admin must make is: since the majority of those who claim Israel is committing genocide are Democrats, are said voters really going to stand by and not vote for Biden and let the guy who is objectively worse and will most certainly not just indirectly but directly engage in genocide? Considering these are the better educated voters, I’d hope not and Biden strategists may call their bluff. At least that’s what I’d be discussing on the oval office meeting for reelection.
Ultimately the public needs informed of the atrocities of Israel and Biden should probably try to distinguish Netanyahu’s far-right administration and overstep in response to October 7th from support of Israeli citizens themselves. That’s the needle that needs threaded.
2/3rds of people in the US think Israel is either committing genocide or they are unwilling to say Israel is definitively NOT committing genocide (which, if you didn’t care or thought what they were doing was fine you wouldn’t say you were undecided on whether Israel is committing genocide, people don’t just throw that word around lightly).
There are very few issues in the US that are a safer bet and besides Netanyahu is quite openly signaling that he hopes Trump wins the election, and yet Biden keeps trying to sidle up to this guy like he is his ally. It isn’t just ethically wrong, it is an incredible unforced political blunder.
edit y’all wanna still argue that Biden is making a good choice here? Biden is stuck in the past and the US populous is screaming for Biden to stop directly enabling genocide. Biden is heading for disaster by being so incredibly out of touch on this issue, and I am really fucking tired of people saying “oh well, when we examine this much later then we will have a serious discussion about it” which is conveniently having the discussion after every single damn Palestinian is either killed or displaced from their homes in Gaza.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/642695/majority-disapprove-israeli-action-gaza.aspx
I’m not sure those numbers are as rosy for your argument as you’d think. You’re not considering the possibility of someone that does think it’s genocide and wholy approves of it. Which does exist, the “glass em all” types like my father.
I’m pretty sure it all balances out, because other polls are showing it’s still Israel with the popularity advantage even with the downturn.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/611375/americans-views-israel-palestinian-authority-down.aspx
It’s especially telling that desire to pressure the Palestinians to compromise is dropping faster than the increase to pressure Israel: it’s either people just becoming wishy washy or intentionally wanting the conflict to continue until Israel wipes them out. (Kinda wish Gallup didn’t nix the differentiation between those options tbh).
How is it not 2 sides of the same coin:
2/3rds of people in the US think Israel is either NOT committing genocide or they are unwilling to say Israel definitely IS committing genocide (which, if you didn’t care or thought what they were doing wasn’t fine you wouldn’t say you were undecided on whether Israel isn’t committing genocide, people don’t just throw that word around lightly).
For instance, perhaps there are those waiting for the ICC’s verdict.
The only thing that really matters —for aforementioned unaddressed reasons pertaining to the predominantly Democratic voters believing it is genocide — is what swing-voters believe; and if they are undecided or believe Israel is not committing genocide, then they will be the most susceptible to the right-wing propaganda machine that is going to ramp up in the coming months. Biden advisors will clearly wait to see where they fall before fully committing to either side.
And ultimately: Does anyone here actually believe Biden wants to be associated with Genocide? Is he a homicidal maniac happy to see Palestinians suffer? I don’t get that impression.
And If it were that cut-and-dry, why wouldn’t he just abandon Netanyahu entirely?
So it begs the question: what do we as armchair lemmy geniuses believe we know better than the consensus of his advisors and strategists with far more experience and precision survey data than we have?
News flash, we won’t here that verdict until way wayyyyy wayyyyyyyyy after the genocide has already happened and the ruling is simply a matter of getting the history of mass murder right, not a matter of stopping mass murder.
I mean I’m not those people but it doesn’t change my point.
Well, judging by the fact that Biden was paid over 5 million dollars by the pro Israel lobby since 1990, and the fact that he’s bending over backwards to facilitate a genocide as we speak, I’d say he’s more than happy to watch the poors get mutilated by an American colony.
^ For bystanders reading: Nudding in another thread somehow managed to blame Biden for the reversal of Roe and that he should magically snap his fingers and override the Supreme Court of the United states… Or something. Anyway, Republicans thank them for their service. Surely Trump will do better, amirite?
Beware of people like this; for nuance isn’t their forte.
Actually there is a lot of indicators that a lot of Biden’s cabinet vehemently disagree with Biden’s policy on the Palestinian genocide, Biden doesn’t want to be associated with genocide but at this point the only reasonable conclusion is that Biden is ideologically committed to Israel in a way that blinds him to empathizing with the Palestinian genocide.
This might be one of Biden’s few ideological positions (as opposed to just calculating the middle and taking that position which a politician like him normally does).
I think I gave another very reasonable logical conclusion that went completely unaddressed, did I not?
I mean, easily 4/5 of my comment went just completely ignored.
Then lecture them. Not progressives and leftists for refusing to vote for the guy shipping off bombs.