It’s been obvious for a while that governments worldwide are not able to design effective strategies to stop covid. So I’ve been trying to think of initiatives that bypass government.

One example is the decision whether to leave pubs open or closed, despite different pubs having very different infectiousness. One pub might be 100x safer than another, so it’s improper to paint them all with the same brush. It leads to the worst of both worlds, with high contagion and high restrictions on peoples lives, at the same time.

It’s possible to categorise public spaces by their infectiousness. For example somewhere with bad ventillation, high density of people, who stay there for a long time; is more infectious than for example an outdoor space.

So privately owned public spaces (shops, pubs, cafés schools, stations, etc) can ask for an evaluation by an expert. The expert can do a calculation based on the properties of the space and its usage, using transparent criteria. The space will get a result. Not a safe/unsafe one, or a stay open / stay closed one, but something like this:

  • max 5 people at a time. max 15 min stay. masks required.

This result can be posted on the door, as an advertisement that the space is taking covid seriously, and a helpful guide to concerned customers.

This is easy to understand and obey, and helps people control their risks, but it never stops people from doing business somewhere. Nowhere will get a 0 min rating, exuivalent to being temporarily shut down, because that doesn’t make epidemiological sense. One pub might get a 30min rating and another a 90min rating. So the first one won’t go out of business (like it would under a lockdown) but there is a strong incentive to improve its ventillation to get a longer rating.

This is the ideal situation. It solves all the weaknesses with most governments’ policies in one go. It’s a shame governments don’t have the sense to implement it, but any non-profit could.

The sign on the door is also an advertisement for the scheme, to get more businesses to sign up. People will choose to go to the shop with the bright covid rating sign in the door, over the one with no information on how infectious it is. The abstaining shops will be conspicuous and lose business.

  • roastpotatothiefOPM
    1·
    3 years ago

    Here is a good starting point. It’s a lot better than the status quo, but I’m sure a proper epidemiologist could do much better than this.

    Every public space is limited to 1 man per 4 metres squared. The customers’ time limit is 15min.

    (If you visit several public spaces in one day, (or even the same space several times), the total time spent in all of them should be limited to the time-rating of the place with the shortest rating.)

    Any of the following leads to a doubling of the time-rating:

    • Having a big open window or mechanical AC

    • requiring masks

    • requiring vaccination passes

    • Lowering the permitted human-density to 1 man per 9 metres squared

    So the max rating, of somewhere which does all of those, would be 4 hours.

    The rating should be halfed for a space where people stand and sit close together, like a train or pub. The vulnerable (or very cautious) should also half the time ratings, and altogether avoid places with the lowest 15min rating.