The WSJ reports that China is on an extensive push to drive out Western tech companies from the country and replace them with domestic alternatives. China reportedly started its domestic expansion in 2022 with a highly secretive “Document 79,” an initiative focused on deleting Western tech companies from the country. Since then, China’s new plan has been in full effect — domestic alternatives have replaced most Western software providers.
When initiated two years ago, Document 79 was a super sensitive document that only high-ranking officials were purportedly shown. Security was so paramount that copies of the document were not allowed to be made. The initiative set out by Document 79 is to replace foreign software in China’s IT systems by 2027, with state-owned firms required to provide quarterly updates on their progress in replacing foreign software with domestic alternatives.
Two years later, the fruits of Document 79 are now apparent. Microsoft, HP Enterprise, and Cisco’s market share in China has fallen drastically in the past several years. In 2018, HP Enterprise had a 14.1% market share in China, but in 2023, that has fallen to just 4%. Cisco’s market share has halved in the past five years down to just 8%. Microsoft’s Chinese sales today account for just 1.5% of the company’s overall sales.
The con was that the western companies gave over some serious IP for a decade or maybe 2 of cheap manufacturing. China was trying to industrialize for decades and essentially couldn’t do it. Walk in the western companies and they gave all the knowledge, skill, everything ($$$$) for some cheap labour ($).
Western companies think 5 years is a long term plan, so they’ll take whatever terms for 5 years (mayyybe 10 if they are unheard of long term planning) and after that is ???, but profit-now-is-everything-by-definition. But China is playing decades at a time, they are getting decades, close to a century of IP, for next to nothing in the big picture.