The WSJ reports that China is on an extensive push to drive out Western tech companies from the country and replace them with domestic alternatives. China reportedly started its domestic expansion in 2022 with a highly secretive “Document 79,” an initiative focused on deleting Western tech companies from the country. Since then, China’s new plan has been in full effect — domestic alternatives have replaced most Western software providers.
When initiated two years ago, Document 79 was a super sensitive document that only high-ranking officials were purportedly shown. Security was so paramount that copies of the document were not allowed to be made. The initiative set out by Document 79 is to replace foreign software in China’s IT systems by 2027, with state-owned firms required to provide quarterly updates on their progress in replacing foreign software with domestic alternatives.
Two years later, the fruits of Document 79 are now apparent. Microsoft, HP Enterprise, and Cisco’s market share in China has fallen drastically in the past several years. In 2018, HP Enterprise had a 14.1% market share in China, but in 2023, that has fallen to just 4%. Cisco’s market share has halved in the past five years down to just 8%. Microsoft’s Chinese sales today account for just 1.5% of the company’s overall sales.
Mostly agree, the manufacturing agreements played Western companies like a fiddle in the long game. But I don’t think Western companies will collapse (or Chinese companies gain dominance as you word it). We’ll end up with two competing spheres, China and the west, protecting their own internal economies.
Im worried that China isn’t content with that. Their stated goal is to become the next global hegemon, and we can see that they desire to establish their domestic rules abroad as well.
Around the world they establish secret police stations to monitor their citizens living abroad, and to ensure their narrative is dominant in western media (most recent examples: China removed about unfavorable reporting in Canada, and the completely insane agreement Hungary made to give Chinese police actual law enforcement powers in the country.
Also, two competing spheres in the past developed into the Cold War. I’m not really keen on another super polarized world flirting with nuclear war.
Well they’re going to be economically sooner or later. GDP is essentially population times efficiency. Once they get their efficiency up, there’s no way the US can compete. The population of China is just that high. Same with India if they ever get their act together.
But as for exporting their values, that’s a hard sell. The old idea was that prosperity will lead to democracy, but the US Europe are wising up to that is not going to happen. I don’t see it going very far. Selling it to Africa will be interesting.