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I’ve been seeing a lot of angst and emotion on the Reddit migration, which results in either defeatism or blind optimism. In the end, it probably doesn’t matter, but I wanted to do more fact-based research into the subject.
I put my findings and my analysis into what it would actually take to kill Reddit, based on the deaths of Digg and MySpace. tl;dr it’s a lot less dramatic than most people would think.
As this article describes, even Digg’s collapse wasn’t actually the Digg-style collapse that we commonly imagine it was nowadays.
It’s interesting how human memory and historical records can distort things. I’ve been following the Ukraine war closely, for example, and there’s a lot of people who are thinking that Ukraine has failed because their current counteroffensive hasn’t achieved a rout in 2 weeks. Wars like these take years to unfold, and then we read about them in minutes on Wikipedia so people don’t get an intuitive sense of that.