- cross-posted to:
- politics@lemmy.org
- cross-posted to:
- politics@lemmy.org
Just under half of likely Iowa GOP caucusgoers who support former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley indicated that they would make a crossover to the Democratic party, saying that they would rather vote for President Biden over former President Trump.
A new NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll released just one day before the Iowa caucuses found that 43 percent of Haley backers in the state said they would vote for Biden if Trump is the GOP nominee, while 23 percent say they would vote for the former president. Eight percent said they would vote for independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Overall, 71 percent of likely GOP caucusgoers said they would vote for Trump in 2024, while only 11 percent said they would vote for Biden.
“Haley is consolidating the anti-Trump vote,” J. Ann Selzer, a pollster who has conducted the Iowa survey over the last three decades, told NBC. “She does well with the people who define themselves as anti-Trump.”
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Well that’s good news. Now we just gotta see how well she does tomorrow. Biden might actually win in 2024. I’ve been feeling so negative about it because most Americans don’t understand what caused inflation and “well, the economy was better under Trump” means literally nothing when a global pandemic and regional wars fucked the world up
The Trump economy is exactly why we’re having this housing crisis. His administration kept interest rates insanely low, way after the economy had recovered from the recession. This resulted in an insane amount of borrowing, because even poor investments could easily beat the interest rate, so it was essentially free money.
Well, surprise surprised, a ton of that borrowed money went straight into the real estate market as “safe” investments, which caused housing prices to sky rocket.
The pandemic certainly added fuel to the fire, but people tend to forget the underlying cause of massive housing inflation - “free” money and a no brainer investment.
The pandemic just fuel to the fire because everyone suddenly looked to upgrade their home situation, due to being stuck there on lock down.
And speaking of fuel, there’s more domestic oil production under Biden than under Trump! How much do we hear them removed about the price of gas? They’re so stupid
Probably actually more a problem with fed policy under Obama. It’s understandable that rates went to zero after 2008, but keeping them there for 7+ years doesn’t look great in hindsight. Trump actually did hike rates prior to the Pandemic, with Obama doing a few small hikes right before he left office as well.
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Also, the weird truth is that the economy did better under both Obama and Biden than it did under trump, but the wingers don’t let facts get in the way of their talking points. I’ve been worried about Haley getting the nomination because I think she could beat Biden. I don’t think trump would. For me trump winning is scarier, but more unlikely.
I’d be afraid of any GOP win. Trump rewrote the rules and they will never return to center. There is a chance who ever takes the torch from Trump is actually competent and that’s terrifying.
The pendulum swings back and forth for the US Presidency, so it’s not a matter of IF, but WHEN another Republican eventually gets into the Oval Office. Whether its next year or 4 or 8 years from now, they will eventually get into power again since the Electoral College favors minority rule. We’re fucked without massive systemic change.
By all means vote for the party that actually gives a flying duck about rules and decorum, but the Republicans have butchered the political game and there’s no going back until they have all the power. They next 2-3 decades are not going to be the future we were hoping for. Look into failing, declining democracies throughout history, or the downfall of Rome, and you’ll see a lot of similarities with the current US situation.
You can find it on Amazon, but it’s also at most local libraries, but the book “How Democracies Die” by Steven Levitsky from 2018 talks about how democracies throughout history have failed and he also touches on a few ways to save it. Well worth a read if you are into that sort of topic.
Im scared of a Trump win but terrified of a Trump loss. What will happen if he loses a second general election? I would rather see Haley get the nomination because the Trumpers would write in Trump and Biden would win easily. I’m voting for Haley in my state’s primary lmao
One thing to keep it mind, when he lost the first time, he was still in control of the government so his power and influence was far greater than it is now. This second time around, he has no power whatsoever, he’s just another citizen, but it is through his supporters, and the constant media attention, that he wields the illusion of power, but not political power. Objectively, it will be A LOT harder for Trump to attempt another coup since he no longer has all the political levers to control.
I agree with you there! But at the same time, him with less options leaves the door open for more unfettered violence. I think it’s not likely that a bunch of old racist men who cosplay as Navy SEALs would stage a widespread revolt that involves multiple domestic terrorist incidents, but… it’s sort of not impossible either. Some rightwingers took out a power grid near Fort Bragg last year. Makes me wonder if that was a drill
It sucks but does it matter at this point? There is a mass shooting pretty much every day. I bet no matter what they do it wouldn’t even budge the typical number of people who die this way a single percent for that week.
I’m not sure that would be their goal. I would expect them to target key infrastructure and personnel to maximize chaos. I don’t see them being mass murderers. More like calculated assassins and masters of chaos. Bottom line, whether Trump wins or loses, America will be worse off. If he wanted to make America great again, he would throw himself off of his tower in NYC
Legit question from a non-American - are Repubs really likely to vote for a woman for president?
A woman republican candidate will lose badly bc they would not.
Not just Republicans. I know several people on both sides of the aisle who only voted for Trump the first time because they didn’t want a woman president.
most Americans don’t understand what caused inflation and “well, the economy was better under Trump” means literally nothing when a global pandemic and regional wars fucked the world up
That’s the thing about the collision between reality and politics though: the former doesn’t matter.
When I was in the military, they used to always say “Perception is reality.” I’m no philosophy major, but I always thought that was exceedingly stupid, especially for the military.
But the more I learn about the world, the more I’m just like…yeah, okay, if you want to be pragmatic, then perception is reality.
So, the fact that most Americans don’t understand what caused inflation and attribute it to the president like idiots means everything politically. It’s Americans who are voting. And if they can proudly identify Canada on a map and proclaim it’s the U.S., then that’s what we’re stuck with.
Yeah, well said. I’ve given up trying to convince my MAGA mom that had Trump gotten a second term, inflation would still be high. I walked her through everything that happened and asked her what was it that Biden did that made inflation bad. It’s just crickets. They hear “Biden bad, inflation his fault” and that’s enough for them.
Until they can differentiate between a claim and a fact, we’re stuck with their alternative reality
I wouldn’t got that far but in general yes. Our ideas of the real world very much shape the world we live in. Which is only the case because all this tech and wealth and organization has shielded us from the real world.
I just don’t understand some voters. At all.
They are stupid. It’s really that simple.
nik haley is punjabi
what is her real name???
She was raised Sikh by Sikh parents and now declares herself Christian. Nether Sikh nor Christian are Hindu
Edit: person I replied to changed their post where they claimed she was Hindu
This comment read hilariously.
bruh she is a republican 👌
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We should never hope for Trump on the ballot. Even if that means Haley fuming it out with Uncle Joe. Trump should not be allowed to run. Period.
THIS. I’ll take someone who hasn’t admitted that they plan on being a day-one dictator over one that has any day.
And it shouldn’t be an optional thing. Even if it could potentially help Democrats, or you personally, or whatever, it is unacceptable for him to be allowed to run after refusing to transition power peacefully. It is and should be disqualifying.
It’s not a matter of preference. It is a matter of what is right and just.
Well said.
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Why do you think Democrat leadership keeps saying things like ‘we need to best Trump at the polls’. They don’t want to take Trump off the ballot because they know it reduces their chances. They’re catering to a fascist so they can win an election. That was the 2016 strategy.
It’s because every Republican candidate is Trump with less make-up. They all share the same fascist platform.
You better believe they want Trump removed from the ballot, and there’s two outcomes why: The first and likely is that Trump wins nomination. On states where he’s not on the ballot, there will be people who do not vote at all and this affect downstream voting. The second is that Trump somehow loses nomination. There will indeed be people who write-in Trump, and while this is actually a worse outcome due to downstream voting being affected, this outcome would be largely unaffected by Trump’s removal or not. Primary voters are gonna write things in, and especially Republican ones that feel like the system is rigged.
They’re literally saying they don’t want him removed from the ballot, California rejected it, Jeffries wants to beat him at the polls. If the Democrat leadership wants him off the ballot they’re certainly not saying so out loud and I have no idea why you think they are.
In the event that Trump is in prison, or has a heart attack next month, or whatever, you’d see a depression among MAGA voters in the election. They wouldn’t be enthusiastic and plenty of them would stay home. Trump gets really big turnout in these types and total votes would go below 2012 Republican numbers. For instance in 2020 Trump got 74 million votes. In 2012 Romney got 60 million. In 2008 McCain got 59 million. It’s not that 14 million people shifted to the right after 2012, it’s that they all came out to vote.
Trump shouldn’t be on the ballot. He tried to lead a coup against his own country. He should be done.
Doesn’t matter if there was 100% chance of Republicans losing with Trump vs. 100% chance of winning without him. He still should not be on the ballot ever again.
This isn’t about teams or sides or who we want to win. The guy committed treason. We shouldn’t be legitimizing that by letting him run for fucking president. He should be in prison.
200 years from now, students shouldn’t be learning that we tried to vote a treasonous authoritarian cult leader back into office. They should be learning that treason ends your political career forever.
If Haley is the nominee, there’s no way she beats Biden. Biden votes would be lessened because there’d be no anti-Trump vote but you still have abortion, weed, and student loan forgiveness on the table. Three super-popular policies that the dems have over the repubs and there’s no chance Haley changes tack on abortion or loan forgiveness.
It’s fairly absurd to me that the Republicans think Trump is a force they need to protect at all.
You can tie a President’s hands pretty thoroughly with control of even one body of Congress, and it’s not like Biden is actually fighting back that hard, because, after all, he ultimately just wants to protect the status quo.
Ditch Trump, blame the Supreme Court just doing what the Constitution says to do, accept the loss you earned when you picked him in the first place, then whine about Biden’s basic liberalism for another four years and get even more Congress critters in seats because people look at a President crippled by Congress and blame the President, not Congress.
The ones in charge of the Republican party have lost the ability to ditch Trump. Theyve sent him too many likes, and prayers and he is too powerful. The GOP needs trump more than Trump needs the GOP.
He will go to the polls as Third Party and neither will never win again for a long time. Not that - that would be a bad thing, mind you.
What, exactly, do you think the relevance is here?
Your first sentence, about the Republicans need to protect Trump. The image is of fasces, the Italian word for a collection of rods (loyalists) bundled around an axe handle (Trump). The purpose of the rods is to take damage for the axe handle to protect it when the axe misses, because the axe is where the “power” is. As such, the rods are disposable, whether they know it or not. The word fasces is where term Fascism derived from
I figured, but that’s the point, Trump is not only disposable but it’d be in their best interest to dispose of him, just like the Grand Council of Fascism/Victor Emmanuel deposed Mussolini for being an incompetent fuckwit.
Even the ideology allows for it, anything and any action can be justified for the goal of strengthening the state.
I mean, it’s all social constructs. To Trump supporters, Trump should be the state, regardless of any puppeteer’s intentions. And right now Trump is indisposable to the GOP, but only because his followers believe he is, or because his followers believe that enough of the other followers believe it that they have little choice but to play along to stay in the game. It’s a fragile, imaginary power, but it’s also very real. It’s certainly in their best interest to bail from Trump, but we’ll see if they will. That’s what makes fascism so cult-y. The axe doesn’t even have to be real, you just need to convince the fasces
Obviously, vote no matter what. But I don’t think this proves Nikki is the stronger candidate. For every 1 Nikki voter that votes for Biden over Trump, there may easily be 3 or 4 Trump voters who stay home rather than vote for Haley. Trump achieved unprecedented turnout in 2020 when he lost (because Biden achieved even more unprecedented turnout). I doubt Nikki can capture that same result
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I mean she is a woman. That already takes her down a shit ton of votes compared to Trump.
Also she’s Middle Eastern.
Identity politics are big in the GOP too.
3rd party 2024 and end the 2 party illusion of choice
Almost half, so like what? 250 people?
It’s 11% of total GOP caucusgoers who would vote for Biden, it’s significant.
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I’m assuming one of the Spice Girls
All five of them, huh?
It’s not like Haley is middle-of-the-road compared to Trump, she’s potentially just as right-wing (if not more) as he is, so are Republicans voting for her just looking for any alternative to Trump? Are they potentially more center-spectrum, just because they’re willing to vote for a female candidate? It’s still early in the process though, I’m sure when we get into the main election, those attitudes could potentially change as it comes down to it.
Haley’s policies are far-right. She’s a threat in many ways. But she’s not a threat to Democracy. She would be a terrible President, but that’s still better than a horrible dictator.
Trump has shown that he is a threat to the republic. Haley, not so much, even if her policies are too far right. So it’s probably because they want someone to represent their views, but also recognize that Trump is an actual threat and don’t feel the same way about Haley. . .which would explain why so many of them would vote for Biden.
Yep. Haley’s platforms may be similar to Trump, but she is not against democratic institutions. It’s sad that the bar is now at “do they say they will be a dictator day 1”, but here we are.
If Haley was president, we would still have to fight tooth and nail, but I would be decently confident we would still have the ability to vote her out in 4 years.
They’re lying
doubt
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This is the best summary I could come up with:
A new NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll released just one day before the Iowa caucuses found that 43 percent of Haley backers in the state said they would vote for Biden if Trump is the GOP nominee, while 23 percent say they would vote for the former president.
Eight percent said they would vote for independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
“Haley is consolidating the anti-Trump vote,” J. Ann Selzer, a pollster who has conducted the Iowa survey over the last three decades, told NBC.
The poll also explored likely Iowa GOP caucusgoers’ view of Trump’s legal challenges.
The NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll was conducted Jan. 7-12 with 705 likely Republican Iowa caucusgoers.
The poll has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.
The original article contains 253 words, the summary contains 129 words. Saved 49%. I’m a bot and I’m open source!
This is why Trump will not be removed from the ballot, Biden loses if it’s anyone else. Enforcing the law as written is as inconvenient for Dems as it is for Republicans.
If Trump is removed from the ballot, Biden will get some “sudden” diagnosis that forces him to back out of the race for health reasons, then whats-her-name will get nominated by default.
This is the same BS that was spewed when Biden first won, claiming it was a backdoor for Harris to be POTUS and he would step down as soon as he was inaugurated. . .and then 2 months. . .and then 2 years. How many times is this nonsense going to be pushed?
Didn’t Biden himself say that he might not be running again if Trump weren’t running also?
He said he wasn’t sure, but that he “expects so.”
3rd party 2024 and end the 2 party illusion of choice
yeah, definitely not the right time for that. 100%, two parties is insufficient and in an ideal world we would have 5-6 parties who actually discuss and compete over policy. but it would have to be accomplished strategically, not when totalitarianism is holding a full house.
Libs polarizing between “this should be super easy” and “omg everything is about to explode if we don’t pick the other old-ass-white-man” is always going to be wild to me.
Doesn’t matter if it’s wild to you. It’s reality.
Does this pertain to “this should be super easy,” or does this pertain to the latter? Your comment doesn’t make sense to me.
