to be fair: i don’t know that ideologically they differ that heavily from the Russian ruling class. all of the legal parties are varying degrees of nationalist, with most of them being explicitly ultranationalist. if you want to escape from people who can be analogized as or just are functionally Nazis, i think you’re generally going to have to look to the opposition to find any (and even then it’s not a guarantee–Navalny has well-publicized and suspect comments in this regard).
People are cheering for them, and I get it - somebody agains Putin, but I can not imagine that someone that forcefully changed Putin will be better for Russians and even more for the rest of the world.
Since their leader has no sway with the oligarchic class that effectively holds power in Russia, it seems unlikely he would be able to consolidate power. If somehow he offed Putin it would be more likely to end in civil war IMO than in Prigozhin as head of Russia.
You’re absolutely right. It will lead to nothing other than civil war. Which is how Putin will spin it - he’ll try to say that since Wagner are nazis, that they were actually working WITH the Ukrainian Nazis and NATO against Russia etc. blah blah blah
As much as I’d love these monsters to go to war with each other, it would mean civil war in the country with the most nuclear warheads, and that makes the prospect something I can’t celebrate.
They don’t really have to. They just need to appeal to the people who already want Putin gone. Whether they coup or not the country is screwed. The damage done by 2 decades of dictatorship.
This is not good. Wagner Group are literal nazis.
to be fair: i don’t know that ideologically they differ that heavily from the Russian ruling class. all of the legal parties are varying degrees of nationalist, with most of them being explicitly ultranationalist. if you want to escape from people who can be analogized as or just are functionally Nazis, i think you’re generally going to have to look to the opposition to find any (and even then it’s not a guarantee–Navalny has well-publicized and suspect comments in this regard).
People are cheering for them, and I get it - somebody agains Putin, but I can not imagine that someone that forcefully changed Putin will be better for Russians and even more for the rest of the world.
Since their leader has no sway with the oligarchic class that effectively holds power in Russia, it seems unlikely he would be able to consolidate power. If somehow he offed Putin it would be more likely to end in civil war IMO than in Prigozhin as head of Russia.
You’re absolutely right. It will lead to nothing other than civil war. Which is how Putin will spin it - he’ll try to say that since Wagner are nazis, that they were actually working WITH the Ukrainian Nazis and NATO against Russia etc. blah blah blah
As much as I’d love these monsters to go to war with each other, it would mean civil war in the country with the most nuclear warheads, and that makes the prospect something I can’t celebrate.
This seems so accurate
Does the Russian upper class have access to sufficient military power to oppose the Wagner group?
Probably not. But Wagner group doesn’t have the manpower to subjugate the entirety of Russia either.
Russia doesn’t have the manpower to subjugate the entirety of Russia either.
They don’t really have to. They just need to appeal to the people who already want Putin gone. Whether they coup or not the country is screwed. The damage done by 2 decades of dictatorship.
The Russian national guard is supposed to be fairly large, and you would think that the air force can operate inside the borders of Russia (for now).
Do I think they can march on Moscow? No. But I’m also not convinced that this can be outright stopped without compromising the war.
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On the other hand, if Moscow and Wagner are busy killing each other, it’ll make it a lot easier for Ukraine to put the border back where it belongs.
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Isn’t that what Putin wanted? To rid Ukraine of nazis?
For serious? Yikes. Out of the frying pan…