As the global fight over manufacturing share and exports heats up, with surplus economies doubling down on exports, and deficit economies discussing protectionist strategies, the policies of the largest global economies are in clear conflict. Are trade wars likely, how do they work, and can the global economy regain balance?
Trade deficit has been known to economists as a farce for decades, so no, they are not the only source of growth.
Most GDP of first world countries comes from services, not goods, which are not accounted for in “exports”.
Once again, if a clickbait title asks a question, the answer is “No”. Otherwise, the title would be the much stronger affirmative statement, e.g., “Exports are the only source of growth for countries”.
Trade deficit is most certainly not a farce. Just because the US has gotten away with having one for over a generation doesn’t mean that it’s nothing.
A large portion of GDP coming from services is incredibly unsustainable, as we see in the US as well as increasingly in the UK and Germany, with western Europe following in due course. What good is an economy if it doesn’t produce the goods people and businesses need every day?
This isn’t to say that exports are the only source for growth, just that the arguments for that position aren’t the ones that you’ve presented.